Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg preview

In the DFB Pokal match between Bayern Munich and 1. FC Magdeburg, the 1X2 probabilities show Bayern Munich at 15%, a draw at 20%, and 1. FC Magdeburg at 65%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which occurs with a 10% probability.

Bayern Munich has an expected goals figure of 1.01, while 1. FC Magdeburg stands at 2.28, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. The model suggests a 64% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Bayern's recent form includes three draws and two wins, which could impact their performance.

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Bayern Munich	Draw	1. FC Magdeburg
Model	15%	20%	65%
Market	—	—	—
Published	15%	20%	65%
Edge	—	—	—

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 1.01.
Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Bayern Munich and 1. FC Magdeburg expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.01Bayern Munich

2.281. FC Magdeburg

Total expected goals: 3.29
Attack rating (Bayern Munich / 1. FC Magdeburg): 1.61 / 1.10
Defence rating (Bayern Munich / 1. FC Magdeburg): 0.77 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 7.6% 9.7% 7.3% 7.1% 1 2.9% 9.5% 9.8% 7.4% 7.2% 2 1.9% 4.4% 5.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3 0.6% 1.5% 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 4+ 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4%

Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: 1. FC Magdeburg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 85%

Over 2.5 64%

Over 3.5 42%

Both teams to score: 58%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Bayern Munich	15%	6.84
	Draw	20%	4.88
	1. FC Magdeburg	65%	1.54
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	64%	1.57
	Under 2.5	36%	2.76
Both teams to score	Yes	58%	1.72
	No	42%	2.38
Double chance	1X (Bayern Munich or draw)	35%	2.85
	12 (either side)	80%	1.26
	X2 (draw or 1. FC Magdeburg)	85%	1.17
Handicap -1	1. FC Magdeburg win by 2+	43%	2.33
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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