Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal Prediction & Betting Tips 27/10/2026

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal preview

In the League Cup fixture between Fleetwood Town and Arsenal, the 1X2 probabilities show Arsenal at 80% and Fleetwood Town at 7%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 12% chance according to our model. Arsenal's expected goals sit at 1.66, while Fleetwood Town's expected goals are 0.87.

While Arsenal's strong recent form includes 6 wins in their last 6 matches, Fleetwood Town's form shows they have only managed 1 win in their last 6 games. This disparity could lead to a straightforward win for Arsenal. However, if Fleetwood Town manages to score, it could affect the likelihood of both teams to score, which is at 48%.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Fleetwood Town	Draw	Arsenal
Model	18%	27%	55%
Market	3%	8%	89%
Published	7%	13%	80%
Edge	+15%	+19%	-34%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.87.
Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.07, recorded 2026-10-14 — the top price across the 3 books we record, each at its own last update.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 54 snapshots since 2026-09-18.

Opened 1.06Now 1.06 +0.00

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Fleetwood Town	29.00	29.00	+0.00
Draw	12.00	12.00	+0.00
Arsenal	1.06	1.06	+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fleetwood Town and Arsenal expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.87Fleetwood Town

1.66Arsenal

Total expected goals: 2.53
Attack rating (Fleetwood Town / Arsenal): 0.83 / 1.39
Defence rating (Fleetwood Town / Arsenal): 0.79 / 0.74

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.2% 12.1% 11.0% 6.1% 3.7% 1 5.8% 12.7% 9.5% 5.3% 3.2% 2 3.0% 5.0% 4.1% 2.3% 1.4% 3 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.7% 0.4% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Fleetwood Town goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%

Over 1.5 73%

Over 2.5 46%

Over 3.5 25%

Both teams to score: 48%
No goals (0–0): 9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Fleetwood Town	7%	14.20
	Draw	13%	7.96
	Arsenal	80%	1.24
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	46%	2.16
	Under 2.5	54%	1.86
Both teams to score	Yes	48%	2.08
	No	52%	1.93
Double chance	1X (Fleetwood Town or draw)	20%	5.10
	12 (either side)	87%	1.14
	X2 (draw or Arsenal)	93%	1.08
Handicap -1	Arsenal win by 2+	31%	3.26
	Push (exactly one goal)	24%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

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Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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