Liverpool vs Arsenal preview
Liverpool faces Arsenal with 33% chances for a home win and 40% for an away victory. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring 7% of the time in our model. Both teams to score is projected at 74%, matching the Over 2.5 goals prediction, which also stands at 74%.
Liverpool's expected goals are 1.86, while Arsenal's are slightly higher at 1.92. Recent form shows Liverpool with four wins and one loss in their last six matches, while Arsenal has four wins, one draw, and one loss. The head-to-head record in the last six meetings shows Liverpool with 1 win, 4 draws, and Arsenal also with 1 win. This context could shift the outcome if either team underperforms.
Why this pick: Liverpool vs Arsenal
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Arsenal 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Liverpool vs Arsenal: model vs market
| Source | Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 23% | 38% |
| Market | 31% | 27% | 41% |
| Published | 33% | 26% | 40% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Liverpool vs Arsenal odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 16 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 3.26 | 3.01 | -0.25 |
| Draw | 3.54 | 3.45 | -0.09 |
| Arsenal | 2.15 | 2.29 | +0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Liverpool and Arsenal expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.78
- Attack rating (Liverpool / Arsenal)
- 1.50 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Liverpool / Arsenal)
- 1.13 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Liverpool vs Arsenal score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Arsenal goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Liverpool vs Arsenal goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Liverpool vs Arsenal
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Arsenal | 40% | 2.47 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.34 |
| No | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Liverpool or draw) | 60% | 1.68 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Arsenal) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 21% | 4.77 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Liverpool and Arsenal recent form
Liverpool
5W 0D 1L
Arsenal
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Liverpool at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Arsenal away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 4
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Arsenal away only.
Liverpool vs Arsenal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Liverpool 1 · draws 4 · Arsenal 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-08 | Arsenal | 0-0 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2025-08-31 | Liverpool | 1-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-05-11 | Liverpool | 2-2 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-10-27 | Arsenal | 2-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-02-04 | Arsenal | 3-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2023-12-23 | Liverpool | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Coventry v Sunderland — match page 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Liverpool, previous: Liverpool vs Chelsea prediction
- Liverpool, next: Fenerbahçe – Liverpool, 2026-11-04
- Arsenal, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: odds and pick
- Arsenal, next: Slavia Praha vs Arsenal: odds and pick