Coventry vs Sunderland preview
In the Premier League fixture between Coventry and Sunderland, the 1X2 probabilities show both teams at 36%, with a draw at 27%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, which has a 7% chance of occurring.
The model suggests a 60% likelihood of Over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance for both teams to score. Coventry's expected goals stand at 1.74, while Sunderland's is lower at 1.28. Recent form indicates Coventry has lost 3 of their last 6 matches, while Sunderland has drawn twice and lost 4 times. These factors could influence the outcome differently than predicted.
Why this pick: Coventry vs Sunderland
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Coventry 9, Sunderland 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Coventry vs Sunderland: model vs market
| Source | Coventry | Draw | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Market | 32% | 28% | 40% |
| Published | 36% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.46, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Coventry vs Sunderland odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sunderland, 18 snapshots since 2026-10-18.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coventry | 2.63 | 2.95 | +0.32 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.40 | +0.10 |
| Sunderland | 2.55 | 2.35 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Coventry and Sunderland expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.02
- Attack rating (Coventry / Sunderland)
- 1.06 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Coventry / Sunderland)
- 1.05 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Coventry vs Sunderland score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Coventry goals. Columns: Sunderland goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Coventry vs Sunderland goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Coventry vs Sunderland
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Coventry | 36% | 2.76 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Sunderland | 36% | 2.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.61 |
| No | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Coventry or draw) | 64% | 1.57 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Sunderland) | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sunderland win by 2+ | 11% | 8.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Coventry and Sunderland recent form
Coventry
2W 0D 4L
Sunderland
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Coventry at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.
Sunderland away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Coventry at home only, Sunderland away only.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Chelsea vs Manchester United — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Bournemouth vs Leeds 2026-10-31
- Manchester City v Brighton — match page 2026-10-31
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Hull City vs Ipswich 2026-10-31
- Tottenham vs Crystal Palace — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Aston Villa vs Fulham 2026-10-31
- Liverpool v Arsenal — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- Coventry, previous: Coventry vs Fulham: odds and pick
- Sunderland, previous: Sunderland v Brentford analysis
- Sunderland, next: Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: odds and pick