Everton vs Coventry Prediction & Betting Tips 06/11/2026

Everton vs Coventry preview

In the Premier League fixture between Everton and Coventry, the 1X2 probabilities show Everton at 55% to win, while Coventry sits at 21%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs with a 10% chance. Everton's expected goals are 1.91 compared to Coventry's 1.15, indicating a stronger attacking performance from Everton.

However, recent form reveals that Everton has mixed results with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 matches, while Coventry has 3 wins and 3 losses. This inconsistency could impact the outcome. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 64%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 65%, suggesting a potential for a high-scoring match, but recent performances may deviate from these predictions.

Why this pick: Everton vs Coventry

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Coventry 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

EvertonCoventry

1.57 xG per 90 1.02

1.57 npxG per 90 0.93

13.7 PPDA 22.2

5.9 Deep completions per 90 3.8

1.43 xPTS per 90 0.99

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Everton vs Coventry: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Everton	Draw	Coventry
Model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%
Published	55%	24%	21%
Edge	0%	0%	0%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.15.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded 2026-11-06 — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Everton vs Coventry odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 1.52Now 1.70 +0.18

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Everton	1.52	1.70	+0.18
Draw	3.75	3.99	+0.24
Coventry	4.30	4.90	+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Everton and Coventry expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91Everton

1.15Coventry

Total expected goals: 3.06
Attack rating (Everton / Coventry): 1.16 / 1.05
Defence rating (Everton / Coventry): 0.89 / 1.08

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Everton vs Coventry score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.8% 3.4% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 1 7.1% 11.3% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 2 8.6% 9.9% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 5.7% 6.6% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 4.5% 5.2% 3.0% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Coventry goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Everton vs Coventry goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%

Over 1.5 84%

Over 2.5 61%

Over 3.5 39%

Both teams to score: 64%
No goals (0–0): 6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Everton vs Coventry

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Everton	55%	1.81
	Draw	24%	4.18
	Coventry	21%	4.83
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	65%	1.53
	Under 2.5	35%	2.87
Both teams to score	Yes	64%	1.56
	No	36%	2.80
Double chance	1X (Everton or draw)	79%	1.26
	12 (either side)	76%	1.31
	X2 (draw or Coventry)	45%	2.24
Handicap -1	Everton win by 2+	34%	2.93
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Everton and Coventry recent form

Everton 3W 1D 2L

Coventry 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Everton at home

Record (W-D-L): 2-1-1
Win rate: 50%
Goals for / match: 1.25
Goals against / match: 1.00
Clean sheets: 2 of 4

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Coventry away

Record (W-D-L): 1-0-3
Win rate: 25%
Goals for / match: 0.50
Goals against / match: 1.75
Clean sheets: 1 of 4

They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Everton at home only, Coventry away only.