Updated

Premier League · Matchday 10

Arsenal vs Hull City

· Emirates Stadium, London· Referee Farai Hallam

Alin prediction Arsenal to win

Bblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ArsenalDrawHull City
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.66.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Arsenal is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Arsenal1.21 Draw8.50 Hull City18.50

Price as of

Expected return at 1.21: -5.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 11 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Arsenal vs Hull City preview

In the upcoming match between Arsenal and Hull City, Arsenal holds a strong 77% probability to win, while Hull City has just a 7% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, which occurs at a rate of 13%. Arsenal's expected goals stand at 1.94, compared to Hull City's 0.73, indicating a significant difference in attacking potential.

However, the match could deviate from this expectation if Hull City manages to improve their recent form, which includes five consecutive matches without a win. Additionally, while there is a 52% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance for both teams to score, Hull's low expected goals may hinder their ability to find the net.

Why this pick: Arsenal vs Hull City

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Hull City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ArsenalHull City
1.69 xG per 90 1.10
1.69 npxG per 90 1.02
9.5 PPDA 16.4
12.2 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.71 xPTS per 90 0.92

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Arsenal vs Hull City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceArsenalDrawHull City
Model68%22%10%
Market82%13%6%
Published78%15%7%
Edge-4%+2%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.92 vs 0.66.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.21, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Arsenal vs Hull City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 1.21Now 1.17 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Arsenal1.211.17-0.04
Draw7.757.65-0.10
Hull City16.0017.46+1.46

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Arsenal and Hull City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.92Arsenal
0.66Hull City
Total expected goals
2.58
Attack rating (Arsenal / Hull City)
1.19 / 0.82
Defence rating (Arsenal / Hull City)
0.66 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Arsenal vs Hull City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.2% 3.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 1 12.5% 10.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 2 14.0% 9.2% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 3 9.4% 6.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 7.6% 5.0% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Hull City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Arsenal vs Hull City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Arsenal vs Hull City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Arsenal78%1.28
Draw15%6.68
Hull City7%14.93
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.21
No55%1.83
Double chance1X (Arsenal or draw)93%1.07
12 (either side)85%1.18
X2 (draw or Hull City)22%4.62
Handicap -1Arsenal win by 2+44%2.27
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

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Arsenal and Hull City recent form

Arsenal 4W 2D 0L
Hull City 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Arsenal at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 8 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Hull City away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Hull City away only.

Arsenal vs Hull City head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Arsenal 8 · draws 2 · Hull City 0.

ArsenalDrawsHull City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2017-02-11Arsenal2-0Hull CityPremier League
2016-09-17Hull City1-4ArsenalPremier League
2016-03-08Hull City0-4ArsenalFA Cup
2016-02-20Arsenal0-0Hull CityFA Cup
2015-05-04Hull City1-3ArsenalPremier League
2015-01-04Arsenal2-0Hull CityFA Cup
2014-10-18Arsenal2-2Hull CityPremier League
2014-05-17Arsenal3-2Hull CityFA Cup
2014-04-20Hull City0-3ArsenalPremier League
2013-12-04Arsenal2-0Hull CityPremier League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Arsenal to win Predicted score 2 – 0 B Bet on Arsenal
Our pick: Arsenal to win 18+ Bet Now