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Premier League · Matchday 10

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

· City Ground, Nottingham· Referee Samuel Barrott

Alin prediction Manchester City to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Nottingham ForestDrawManchester City
  • WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Manchester City is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Nottingham Forest4.88 Draw4.32 Manchester City1.74

Price as of

Expected return at 1.74: -8.7% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 11 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City preview

In the Premier League fixture between Nottingham Forest and Manchester City, the 1X2 probabilities show Manchester City at 52% to win, compared to Nottingham Forest's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 7% chance. Both teams to score and Over 2.5 goals are each at 78%, indicating a high likelihood of an entertaining match.

Nottingham Forest's recent form is L-D-L-L-L-W, while Manchester City has a mixed record of L-D-L-W-W-L. Nottingham Forest has won 1 of the last 7 encounters against Manchester City, who have won 5. If Nottingham Forest can improve their form, they might challenge the expected goals of 1.90 for them and 2.17 for Manchester City.

Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Manchester City 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Nottingham ForestManchester City
1.88 xG per 90 2.64
1.80 npxG per 90 2.64
13.0 PPDA 9.5
6.7 Deep completions per 90 12.6
1.85 xPTS per 90 2.13

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceNottingham ForestDrawManchester City
Model36%22%42%
Market21%24%56%
Published24%23%52%
Edge+4%0%-3%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-25.

Opened 1.70Now 1.71 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Nottingham Forest4.334.68+0.35
Draw4.004.00+0.00
Manchester City1.701.71+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nottingham Forest and Manchester City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.91Nottingham Forest
2.02Manchester City
Total expected goals
3.93
Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Manchester City)
1.19 / 1.61
Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Manchester City)
1.03 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.9% 2.5% 3.6% 2.4% 2.0% 1 2.5% 8.3% 7.3% 4.9% 4.0% 2 3.6% 7.3% 7.3% 4.9% 4.0% 3 2.4% 4.9% 4.9% 3.3% 2.7% 4+ 1.9% 3.9% 3.9% 2.6% 2.1%

Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Manchester City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 77%
Over 3.5 57%
Both teams to score
78%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Nottingham Forest24%4.12
Draw23%4.30
Manchester City52%1.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.578%1.27
Under 2.522%4.65
Both teams to scoreYes78%1.29
No22%4.45
Double chance1X (Nottingham Forest or draw)48%2.10
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Manchester City)76%1.32
Handicap -1Manchester City win by 2+22%4.53
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

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Nottingham Forest and Manchester City recent form

Nottingham Forest 1W 1D 4L
Manchester City 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Nottingham Forest at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.00
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.

Manchester City away

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-1
Win rate
75%
Goals for / match
2.25
Goals against / match
0.75
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 7 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Nottingham Forest at home only, Manchester City away only.

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Nottingham Forest 1 · draws 2 · Manchester City 6.

Nottingham ForestDrawsManchester City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-04Manchester City2-2Nottingham ForestPremier League
2025-12-27Nottingham Forest1-2Manchester CityPremier League
2025-04-27Nottingham Forest0-2Manchester CityEngland FA Cup
2025-03-08Nottingham Forest1-0Manchester CityPremier League
2024-12-04Manchester City3-0Nottingham ForestPremier League
2024-04-28Nottingham Forest0-2Manchester CityPremier League
2023-09-23Manchester City2-0Nottingham ForestPremier League
2023-02-18Nottingham Forest1-1Manchester CityPremier League
2022-08-31Manchester City6-0Nottingham ForestPremier League

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Manchester City to win Predicted score 1 – 2 A Bet on Manchester City
Our pick: Manchester City to win 18+ Bet Now