Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers preview
Fleetwood Town faces Bristol Rovers with a 50% probability of winning compared to 22% for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 11% chance according to our model. Fleetwood's expected goals stand at 1.55, while Bristol Rovers is at 0.97.
However, the match could see different outcomes if both teams score, which has a 50% probability. Additionally, the recent form shows Fleetwood Town with 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Bristol Rovers has 4 losses in their last 6. With a confidence grade of C, this suggests uncertainty in the match outcome.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Fleetwood Town | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Market | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Published | 39% | 28% | 33% |
| Edge | +4% | 0% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 0.97.
- The market prices Fleetwood Town below our published probability: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Fleetwood Town, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | 2.66 | 2.62 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.30 | 3.30 | +0.00 |
| Bristol Rovers | 2.49 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.52
- Attack rating (Fleetwood Town / Bristol Rovers)
- 1.00 / 0.77
- Defence rating (Fleetwood Town / Bristol Rovers)
- 1.07 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fleetwood Town goals. Columns: Bristol Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fleetwood Town | 39% | 2.58 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Bristol Rovers | 33% | 3.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.17 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| No | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fleetwood Town or draw) | 67% | 1.50 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Bristol Rovers) | 61% | 1.63 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win by 2+ | 26% | 3.80 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fleetwood Town and Bristol Rovers recent form
Fleetwood Town
1W 1D 4L
Bristol Rovers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fleetwood Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-5
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.83
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fleetwood Town at home only, Bristol Rovers away only.
Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Fleetwood Town 1 · draws 0 · Bristol Rovers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Bristol Rovers | 1-0 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
| 2025-08-09 | Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
- Oldham vs Crawley Town 2026-10-31
- Shrewsbury v Gillingham — match page 2026-10-31
- Swindon Town vs Rotherham — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Accrington ST vs Northampton 2026-10-31
- Colchester v Walsall — match page 2026-10-31
- Crewe vs Barnet — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Tranmere vs Cheltenham 2026-10-31
- Salford City v Exeter City — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Fleetwood Town, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Arsenal: odds and pick
- Fleetwood Town, next: Fleetwood Town – Rochdale, 2026-11-07
- Bristol Rovers, previous: Bristol Rovers vs Swindon Town prediction
- Bristol Rovers, next: Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United prediction