Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

· Highbury Stadium, Fleetwood

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Fleetwood Town to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fleetwood TownDrawRochdale

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFleetwood TownDrawRochdale
Model60%22%18%
Market56%24%21%
Published57%23%20%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.08.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Fleetwood Town, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.69Now 1.67 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Fleetwood Town1.691.67-0.02
Draw3.943.94+0.00
Rochdale4.554.50-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.10Fleetwood Town
1.08Rochdale
Total expected goals
3.18
Attack rating (Fleetwood Town / Rochdale)
0.94 / 0.83
Defence rating (Fleetwood Town / Rochdale)
0.88 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.1% 3.5% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 1 7.8% 10.4% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 2 9.2% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 6.5% 6.9% 3.7% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 5.5% 5.9% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4%

Rows: Fleetwood Town goals. Columns: Rochdale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 84%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 39%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fleetwood Town57%1.76
Draw23%4.29
Rochdale20%5.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.62
Under 2.538%2.60
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.43
Double chance1X (Fleetwood Town or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Rochdale)43%2.31
Handicap -1Fleetwood Town win by 2+38%2.65
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fleetwood Town and Rochdale recent form

Fleetwood Town 2W 2D 2L
Rochdale 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Fleetwood Town lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 J. Lynch
  2. 24 Jake Thomas Batty
  3. 5 F. Potter
  4. 6 R. Bennett
  5. 16 Conor Haughey
  6. 14 L. McCann
  7. 7 A. Cannon
  8. 4 H. Neal
  9. 27 C. McLean
  10. 20 A. Loupalo-Bi
  11. 19 R. Coughlan

Bench: D. Andrew, W. Davies, M. Helm, Joshua Thomas, A. Murphy, J. Pradic, S. Rooney, J. Robertson, Raffaele Cirino

Rochdale lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 20 Sam William John Waller
  2. 13 O. Adebayo-Rowling
  3. 2 C. Tasker
  4. 44 A. Flint
  5. 3 Kaiden Wilson
  6. 8 H. Gilmour
  7. 35 J. Paterson
  8. 45 G. Middleton
  9. 11 Z. Silcott-Duberry
  10. 19 L. Hannant
  11. 39 D. Brown

Bench: R. East, E. Ebanks-Landell, C. Hayes, J. Spaven, E. Francis, C. Pettit, B. Adeeko, B. Bilongo, I. Henderson

Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fleetwood Town 3 · draws 4 · Rochdale 3.

Fleetwood TownDrawsRochdale
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-26Fleetwood Town1-2RochdaleLeague Two
2024-07-20Fleetwood Town1-1RochdaleFriendlies Clubs
2021-07-17Rochdale3-3Fleetwood TownFriendlies Clubs
2021-04-10Fleetwood Town1-0RochdaleLeague One
2020-10-03Rochdale2-1Fleetwood TownLeague One
2019-12-26Rochdale2-3Fleetwood TownLeague One
2019-09-21Fleetwood Town2-1RochdaleLeague One
2019-01-19Rochdale1-1Fleetwood TownLeague One
2018-10-09Fleetwood Town0-2RochdaleEFL Trophy
2018-08-18Fleetwood Town2-2RochdaleLeague One

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match