Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Oxford City vs Leicester

· Court Place Farm, Oxford· Referee Andrew Humphries

Full time2 – 4

Alin prediction was Leicester to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Oxford CityDrawLeicester

Oxford City vs Leicester: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOxford CityDrawLeicester
Model61%20%19%
Market13%17%69%
Published25%18%57%
Edge+12%+1%-13%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Oxford City vs Leicester odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leicester, 12 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.28Now 1.33 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Oxford City7.957.00-0.95
Draw5.385.33-0.05
Leicester1.281.33+0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Oxford City and Leicester expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.42Oxford City
1.31Leicester
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Oxford City / Leicester)
1.47 / 1.09
Defence rating (Oxford City / Leicester)
0.81 / 0.91

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Oxford City vs Leicester score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.2% 2.4% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 1 5.0% 8.4% 5.0% 2.2% 0.9% 2 7.0% 9.2% 6.0% 2.6% 1.1% 3 5.7% 7.4% 4.9% 2.1% 0.9% 4+ 6.1% 8.0% 5.2% 2.3% 1.0%

Rows: Oxford City goals. Columns: Leicester goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Oxford City vs Leicester goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 89%
Over 2.5 72%
Over 3.5 51%
Both teams to score
67%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Oxford City vs Leicester

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Oxford City25%3.97
Draw18%5.54
Leicester57%1.76
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.56
Both teams to scoreYes67%1.49
No33%3.06
Double chance1X (Oxford City or draw)43%2.31
12 (either side)82%1.22
X2 (draw or Leicester)75%1.34
Handicap -1Leicester win by 2+8%12.70
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Oxford City and Leicester recent form

Oxford City 4W 0D 2L
Leicester 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Oxford City at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
6.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Oxford City at home only, Leicester away only.

Expected lineups

Oxford City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Maxted
  2. 22 D. Nelson
  3. 8 D. Tetek
  4. 9 T. Marsh
  5. 7 S. Pollock
  6. 11 E. Brown

Bench: F. Forestieri, B. Bateman, Isaac Westendorf

Leicester lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 21 F. Ravizzoli
  2. 5 C. Okoli
  3. 24 I. Kangasniemi
  4. 16 W. O'Hora
  5. 14 B. De Cordova-Reid
  6. 6 J. Lundstram
  7. 25 L. Page
  8. 33 L. Thomas
  9. 27 K. Doyle
  10. 36 S. Braybrooke
  11. 17 E. Riis

Bench: A. Bristrić, D. Cornell, C. McFarlane, H. Howell, T. Watson, W. Coulibaly, O. Aluko, T. Neale, R. Carr

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match