Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds

· Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon Trent

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Burton Albion to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Burton AlbionDrawAFC Rushden & Diamonds

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBurton AlbionDrawAFC Rushden & Diamonds
Model27%30%44%
Market87%9%4%
Published72%14%14%
Edge-15%+5%+10%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Burton Albion, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.07Now 1.08 +0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Burton Albion1.071.08+0.01
Draw10.5010.25-0.25
AFC Rushden & Diamonds21.9122.13+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.03Burton Albion
1.38AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Total expected goals
2.41
Attack rating (Burton Albion / AFC Rushden & Diamonds)
0.76 / 1.00
Defence rating (Burton Albion / AFC Rushden & Diamonds)
0.93 / 0.75

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 11.1% 8.5% 3.9% 1.8% 1 8.0% 14.1% 8.8% 4.0% 1.9% 2 4.8% 6.6% 4.5% 2.1% 1.0% 3 1.6% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Burton Albion goals. Columns: AFC Rushden & Diamonds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Burton Albion72%1.39
Draw14%7.02
AFC Rushden & Diamonds14%7.13
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.32
Under 2.557%1.76
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.03
No51%1.97
Double chance1X (Burton Albion or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)86%1.17
X2 (draw or AFC Rushden & Diamonds)28%3.54
Handicap -1Burton Albion win by 2+10%9.54
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds recent form

Burton Albion 1W 2D 3L
AFC Rushden & Diamonds 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AFC Rushden & Diamonds away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Burton Albion at home only, AFC Rushden & Diamonds away only.

Expected lineups

Burton Albion lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 34 C. Addai
  2. 16 C. Tilt
  3. 31 J. Lewis
  4. 6 T. Sibbick
  5. 23 Emeka Adeile
  6. 4 K. Chauke
  7. 14 W. Collar
  8. 17 R. Borges Rodrigues
  9. 8 C. Webster
  10. 10 Mark O’Mahony
  11. 19 M. Dennis

Bench: G. Arubi, J. Sraha, Harvey Araujo, J. Kean, Zac Scutt, Sulyman Krubally

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match