Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe

· Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Port Vale to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Port ValeDrawScunthorpe

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePort ValeDrawScunthorpe
Model25%29%45%
Market60%23%18%
Published51%24%25%
Edge-9%+2%+7%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Port Vale, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.56Now 1.56 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Port Vale1.561.56+0.00
Draw4.124.12+0.00
Scunthorpe5.005.23+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Port Vale and Scunthorpe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.02Port Vale
1.44Scunthorpe
Total expected goals
2.46
Attack rating (Port Vale / Scunthorpe)
0.71 / 1.17
Defence rating (Port Vale / Scunthorpe)
0.83 / 0.80

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.8% 11.1% 8.9% 4.2% 2.1% 1 7.5% 13.8% 9.0% 4.3% 2.1% 2 4.4% 6.4% 4.6% 2.2% 1.1% 3 1.5% 2.2% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 4+ 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Port Vale goals. Columns: Scunthorpe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Port Vale vs Scunthorpe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Port Vale51%1.96
Draw24%4.14
Scunthorpe25%4.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.24
Under 2.555%1.80
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.00
No50%2.00
Double chance1X (Port Vale or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Scunthorpe)49%2.05
Handicap -1Port Vale win by 2+10%10.15
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Port Vale and Scunthorpe recent form

Port Vale 3W 1D 2L
Scunthorpe 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Scunthorpe away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Port Vale at home only, Scunthorpe away only.

Expected lineups

Port Vale lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 20 M. Maroši
  2. 5 C. Hall
  3. 4 J. Moon
  4. 25 C. Humphreys
  5. 3 J. Headley
  6. 33 G. Hall
  7. 7 G. Byers
  8. 38 R. Walters
  9. 6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel
  10. 24 K. Figueroa
  11. 11 O. Hernández

Bench: J. Smith, K. John, A. McGowan, O. Lynch, L. Gordon, L. Montsma, M. Asamoah, M. Watters, Charlie Bussel

Scunthorpe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 L. Jones
  2. 33 T. Denton
  3. 5 W. Evans
  4. 17 D. Batty
  5. 21 J. Starbuck
  6. 8 A. Beestin
  7. 14 P. Jones

Bench: D. Howe, H. Parker, S. Ashbee, T. Sellars-Fleming, J. Richards, M. Campbell, R. Clayton

Port Vale vs Scunthorpe head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Port Vale 4 · draws 1 · Scunthorpe 5.

Port ValeDrawsScunthorpe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-01-29Port Vale1-0ScunthorpeLeague Two
2021-09-25Scunthorpe0-1Port ValeLeague Two
2021-01-26Scunthorpe2-0Port ValeLeague Two
2020-11-17Port Vale0-1ScunthorpeLeague Two
2020-09-05Scunthorpe1-2Port ValeLeague Cup
2020-02-29Port Vale2-2ScunthorpeLeague Two
2019-11-23Scunthorpe2-1Port ValeLeague Two
2017-01-28Scunthorpe3-2Port ValeLeague One
2016-08-27Port Vale3-1ScunthorpeLeague One
2016-04-30Scunthorpe1-0Port ValeLeague One

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match