Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Port Vale vs Accrington ST

· Vale Park, Stoke-On-Trent

Full time4 – 2

Alin prediction was Port Vale to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Port ValeDrawAccrington ST

Port Vale vs Accrington ST: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePort ValeDrawAccrington ST
Model33%28%39%
Market47%28%25%
Published43%28%28%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Port Vale vs Accrington ST odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Port Vale, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 1.95Now 2.00 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Port Vale1.952.00+0.05
Draw3.323.28-0.04
Accrington ST3.753.72-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Port Vale and Accrington ST expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.29Port Vale
1.40Accrington ST
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Port Vale / Accrington ST)
1.03 / 1.14
Defence rating (Port Vale / Accrington ST)
1.04 / 0.88

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Port Vale vs Accrington ST score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 8.3% 6.7% 3.1% 1.5% 1 7.5% 13.5% 8.6% 4.0% 1.9% 2 5.6% 7.9% 5.5% 2.6% 1.2% 3 2.4% 3.4% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Port Vale goals. Columns: Accrington ST goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Port Vale vs Accrington ST goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Port Vale vs Accrington ST

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Port Vale43%2.31
Draw28%3.53
Accrington ST28%3.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.98
Under 2.550%2.02
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.79
No44%2.27
Double chance1X (Port Vale or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)72%1.40
X2 (draw or Accrington ST)57%1.76
Handicap -1Port Vale win by 2+15%6.64
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Port Vale and Accrington ST recent form

Port Vale 4W 1D 1L
Accrington ST 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Port Vale at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-2-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
4 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

Accrington ST away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-3
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.29
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Port Vale at home only, Accrington ST away only.

Expected lineups

Port Vale lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 20 M. Maroši
  2. 5 C. Hall
  3. 4 J. Moon
  4. 25 C. Humphreys
  5. 3 J. Headley
  6. 33 G. Hall
  7. 7 G. Byers
  8. 10 K. Dempsey
  9. 6 J. Lawrence-Gabriel
  10. 11 O. Hernández
  11. 36 M. Watters

Bench: J. Smith, A. McGowan, O. Lynch, L. Montsma, M. Asamoah, R. Walters, Charlie Bussel

Accrington ST lineup · 3-4-1-2

  1. 1 L. Moulden
  2. 4 T. Moore
  3. 5 F. Rawson
  4. 17 D. Matthews
  5. 20 C. Brown
  6. 8 C. Grant
  7. 14 Stefan Mols
  8. 2 D. Love
  9. 10 Alex Henderson
  10. 30 C. Warren
  11. 23 T. Walton

Bench: S. Whalley, C. Caton, J. Rogerson, J. Smith, S. Conneely

Port Vale vs Accrington ST head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Port Vale 4 · draws 2 · Accrington ST 4.

Port ValeDrawsAccrington ST
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-10-07Accrington ST0-2Port ValeEFL Trophy
2025-02-01Port Vale2-1Accrington STLeague Two
2024-09-21Accrington ST2-2Port ValeLeague Two
2023-04-07Accrington ST3-0Port ValeLeague One
2023-02-07Port Vale1-1Accrington STLeague One
2021-11-06Port Vale5-1Accrington STFA Cup
2018-01-20Accrington ST3-2Port ValeLeague Two
2017-09-26Port Vale1-2Accrington STLeague Two
2013-02-02Port Vale3-0Accrington STLeague Two
2012-08-21Accrington ST2-0Port ValeLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match