Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield

· Memorial Stadium, Bristol

Full time0 – 2

Alin prediction was Chesterfield to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bristol RoversDrawChesterfield

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBristol RoversDrawChesterfield
Model32%24%45%
Market32%27%41%
Published32%26%42%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.61.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.52Now 2.29 -0.23
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bristol Rovers2.522.90+0.38
Draw3.423.42+0.00
Chesterfield2.522.29-0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.61Bristol Rovers
1.93Chesterfield
Total expected goals
3.54
Attack rating (Bristol Rovers / Chesterfield)
0.87 / 1.49
Defence rating (Bristol Rovers / Chesterfield)
1.10 / 1.31

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.8% 4.7% 5.4% 3.5% 2.6% 1 3.8% 9.9% 8.7% 5.6% 4.2% 2 3.8% 7.3% 7.0% 4.5% 3.4% 3 2.0% 3.9% 3.8% 2.4% 1.8% 4+ 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 1.4% 1.0%

Rows: Bristol Rovers goals. Columns: Chesterfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 69%
Over 3.5 47%
Both teams to score
69%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bristol Rovers32%3.12
Draw26%3.80
Chesterfield42%2.40
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569%1.46
Under 2.531%3.18
Both teams to scoreYes69%1.44
No31%3.25
Double chance1X (Bristol Rovers or draw)58%1.71
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or Chesterfield)68%1.47
Handicap -1Chesterfield win by 2+25%3.94
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bristol Rovers and Chesterfield recent form

Bristol Rovers 1W 1D 4L
Chesterfield 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bristol Rovers at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
4 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.

Chesterfield away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-4
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bristol Rovers at home only, Chesterfield away only.

Expected lineups

Bristol Rovers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Brad Young
  2. 14 B. Purrington
  3. 5 A. Kilgour
  4. 4 K. Balmer
  5. 2 T. James
  6. 6 C. Mola
  7. 22 Keenan Gough
  8. 9 J. Quigley
  9. 24 T. Leigh
  10. 8 R. Russell-Denny
  11. 29 F. Cavegn

Bench: S. Forde, B. Kamwa, E. Harrison, R. Smallwood, P. Sanyaolu, A. Appiah, Charlie Binns

Chesterfield lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Z. Hemming
  2. 19 L. Gordon
  3. 6 J. Simpson
  4. 5 K. McFadzean
  5. 33 R. Hutton
  6. 8 R. Stirk
  7. 4 T. Naylor
  8. 37 J. Koroma
  9. 18 L. Marsh
  10. 7 L. Mandeville
  11. 10 L. Bonis

Bench: D. Duffy, A. Pond, G. McEachran, D. Markanday, K. Dyer, J. Randall, T. Pearce

Bristol Rovers vs Chesterfield head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Bristol Rovers 3 · draws 1 · Chesterfield 5.

Bristol RoversDrawsChesterfield
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Bristol Rovers2-3ChesterfieldLeague Two
2025-08-16Chesterfield3-1Bristol RoversLeague Two
2023-07-29Bristol Rovers2-0ChesterfieldFriendlies Clubs
2017-03-18Bristol Rovers2-1ChesterfieldLeague One
2016-11-26Chesterfield3-2Bristol RoversLeague One
2014-02-01Chesterfield3-1Bristol RoversLeague Two
2013-10-26Bristol Rovers0-0ChesterfieldLeague Two
2013-03-09Chesterfield2-0Bristol RoversLeague Two
2012-11-10Bristol Rovers3-2ChesterfieldLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match