Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town

· Proact Stadium, Chesterfield

Full time4 – 3

Alin prediction was Chesterfield to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChesterfieldDrawYeovil Town

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChesterfieldDrawYeovil Town
Model46%22%32%
Market63%20%17%
Published58%21%21%
Edge-4%0%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.81.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chesterfield, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.47Now 1.49 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chesterfield1.471.49+0.02
Draw4.534.55+0.02
Yeovil Town5.765.50-0.26

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chesterfield and Yeovil Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.17Chesterfield
1.81Yeovil Town
Total expected goals
3.98
Attack rating (Chesterfield / Yeovil Town)
1.08 / 1.22
Defence rating (Chesterfield / Yeovil Town)
1.00 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.6% 2.7% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 1 3.3% 8.1% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 2 4.4% 8.0% 7.2% 4.3% 3.0% 3 3.2% 5.8% 5.2% 3.1% 2.1% 4+ 2.8% 5.2% 4.7% 2.8% 1.9%

Rows: Chesterfield goals. Columns: Yeovil Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 76%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chesterfield58%1.71
Draw21%4.80
Yeovil Town21%4.82
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576%1.32
Under 2.524%4.14
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.34
No25%3.97
Double chance1X (Chesterfield or draw)79%1.26
12 (either side)79%1.26
X2 (draw or Yeovil Town)42%2.40
Handicap -1Chesterfield win by 2+27%3.66
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chesterfield and Yeovil Town recent form

Chesterfield 2W 2D 2L
Yeovil Town 1W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Yeovil Town away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
3.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Chesterfield at home only, Yeovil Town away only.

Expected lineups

Chesterfield lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Z. Hemming
  2. 19 L. Gordon
  3. 6 J. Simpson
  4. 15 A. Pond
  5. 33 R. Hutton
  6. 8 R. Stirk
  7. 27 K. Dyer
  8. 37 J. Koroma
  9. 18 L. Marsh
  10. 7 L. Mandeville
  11. 10 L. Bonis

Bench: T. Naylor, F. Bryden, D. Duffy, G. McEachran, R. Boot, D. Markanday, J. Eccleston, J. Randall, T. Pearce

Yeovil Town lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 6 L. Ayina
  2. 15 J. Gubbins
  3. 20 J. Powell
  4. 10 R. Jones
  5. 25 Z. Westbrooke
  6. 4 H. Muller
  7. 11 J. Daly
  8. 19 S. Spasov

Bench: S. Walker, Sebastian Naylor, C. Lennon

Chesterfield vs Yeovil Town head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Chesterfield 5 · draws 2 · Yeovil Town 2.

ChesterfieldDrawsYeovil Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-03-11Chesterfield1-1Yeovil TownNational League
2022-09-17Yeovil Town2-2ChesterfieldNational League
2022-02-26Chesterfield1-0Yeovil TownNational League
2021-09-18Yeovil Town0-2ChesterfieldNational League
2021-03-06Chesterfield3-0Yeovil TownNational League
2020-10-31Yeovil Town0-1ChesterfieldNational League
2019-12-10Chesterfield1-2Yeovil TownNational League
2018-01-20Yeovil Town1-2ChesterfieldLeague Two
2017-09-26Chesterfield2-3Yeovil TownLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match