Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Huddersfield vs Exeter City

· John Smith's Stadium, Huddersfield· Referee Matthew Russell

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Huddersfield to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

18% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
HuddersfieldDrawExeter City

Huddersfield vs Exeter City: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceHuddersfieldDrawExeter City
Model50%33%18%
Market69%19%12%
Published64%22%14%
Edge-5%+4%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.21 vs 0.61.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Huddersfield vs Exeter City odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Huddersfield, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.30Now 1.33 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Huddersfield1.301.33+0.03
Draw5.304.92-0.38
Exeter City8.557.50-1.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Huddersfield and Exeter City expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.21Huddersfield
0.61Exeter City
Total expected goals
1.82
Attack rating (Huddersfield / Exeter City)
1.18 / 0.65
Defence rating (Huddersfield / Exeter City)
0.64 / 0.57

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Huddersfield vs Exeter City score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 17.4% 8.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 1 18.4% 13.2% 3.7% 0.7% 0.1% 2 11.9% 7.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 3 4.8% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 1.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Huddersfield goals. Columns: Exeter City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Huddersfield vs Exeter City goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 83%
Over 1.5 56%
Over 2.5 27%
Over 3.5 11%
Both teams to score
33%
No goals (0–0)
17%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Huddersfield vs Exeter City

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Huddersfield64%1.56
Draw22%4.50
Exeter City14%7.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.527%3.64
Under 2.573%1.38
Both teams to scoreYes33%3.01
No67%1.50
Double chance1X (Huddersfield or draw)86%1.16
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Exeter City)36%2.79
Handicap -1Huddersfield win by 2+23%4.35
Push (exactly one goal)27%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Huddersfield and Exeter City recent form

Huddersfield 4W 2D 0L
Exeter City 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Huddersfield lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 M. Young
  2. 12 R. Balker
  3. 15 I. Bowat
  4. 5 J. Low
  5. 27 J. Smith-Sway
  6. 20 C. Humphreys
  7. 4 R. Ledson
  8. 7 L. Gooch
  9. 10 M. Harness
  10. 34 S. Tovide
  11. 11 A. Fletcher

Bench: L. Sørensen, J. Taylor, E. Brierley, D. Kasumu, B. Mumba, S. Roughan, C. Ashia, D. Sanches Fernandes, J. Alnwick

Exeter City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Bycroft
  2. 3 L. Woodhouse
  3. 40 E. James
  4. 6 J. Taylor
  5. 2 L. Samuel
  6. 16 C. Cummins
  7. 14 H. Kite
  8. 23 Ethan Sutherland
  9. 12 R. Cole
  10. 20 George Birch
  11. 19 S. Cox

Bench: T. Perry, J. Gordon, Ajay Matthews, Liam Oakes, Frankie Phillips, V. Harper, L. Cayless

Huddersfield vs Exeter City head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Huddersfield 4 · draws 1 · Exeter City 1.

HuddersfieldDrawsExeter City
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-04Huddersfield2-2Exeter CityLeague One
2025-09-27Exeter City0-1HuddersfieldLeague One
2025-04-26Exeter City3-1HuddersfieldLeague One
2024-10-26Huddersfield2-0Exeter CityLeague One
2012-02-25Huddersfield2-0Exeter CityLeague One
2011-10-15Exeter City0-4HuddersfieldLeague One

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match