Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Exeter City vs Cheltenham

· St James Park, Exeter

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Exeter City to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Exeter CityDrawCheltenham

Exeter City vs Cheltenham: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceExeter CityDrawCheltenham
Model48%29%23%
Market50%26%24%
Published49%27%23%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.91.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Exeter City vs Cheltenham odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Exeter City, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.03Now 1.86 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Exeter City2.031.86-0.17
Draw3.383.52+0.14
Cheltenham3.403.95+0.55

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Exeter City and Cheltenham expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Exeter City
0.91Cheltenham
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (Exeter City / Cheltenham)
0.85 / 1.18
Defence rating (Exeter City / Cheltenham)
0.66 / 1.19

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Exeter City vs Cheltenham score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.9% 7.5% 4.0% 1.2% 0.3% 1 12.5% 13.8% 5.7% 1.7% 0.5% 2 9.8% 9.0% 4.1% 1.2% 0.3% 3 4.7% 4.3% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 2.3% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Exeter City goals. Columns: Cheltenham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Exeter City vs Cheltenham goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Exeter City vs Cheltenham

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Exeter City49%2.02
Draw27%3.68
Cheltenham23%4.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.41
Under 2.559%1.71
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.14
No53%1.88
Double chance1X (Exeter City or draw)77%1.30
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Cheltenham)51%1.98
Handicap -1Exeter City win by 2+24%4.12
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Exeter City and Cheltenham recent form

Exeter City 4W 1D 1L
Cheltenham 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Exeter City at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-3-0
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.14
Goals against / match
0.29
Clean sheets
5 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.

Cheltenham away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-4
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.29
Goals against / match
2.14
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Exeter City at home only, Cheltenham away only.

Expected lineups

Exeter City lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Bycroft
  2. 3 L. Woodhouse
  3. 5 J. Fitzwater
  4. 6 J. Taylor
  5. 2 L. Samuel
  6. 14 H. Kite
  7. 31 J. Doyle-Hayes
  8. 20 George Birch
  9. 12 R. Cole
  10. 25 A. Scully
  11. 19 S. Cox

Bench: E. Turns, T. Perry, J. Gordon, Liam Oakes, Frankie Phillips, D. Rose, E. James

Cheltenham lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 23 W. Stanway
  2. 26 J. Shipley
  3. 6 J. Wilson
  4. 25 P. Sweeney
  5. 3 J. Tomkinson
  6. 17 S. McWilliams
  7. 7 B. Stevenson
  8. 14 R. Broom
  9. 8 C. McCann
  10. 9 K. Otchere
  11. 18 A. Weimann

Bench: J. Day, R. Cundy, G. Miller, J. Bickerstaff, Favour Onukwuli, G. Nurse, F. Willcox

Exeter City vs Cheltenham head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Exeter City 3 · draws 2 · Cheltenham 5.

Exeter CityDrawsCheltenham
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-22Cheltenham2-2Exeter CityEFL Trophy
2025-08-13Cheltenham2-0Exeter CityLeague Cup
2024-04-01Cheltenham1-2Exeter CityLeague One
2023-09-16Exeter City1-0CheltenhamLeague One
2023-03-18Cheltenham3-1Exeter CityLeague One
2022-08-20Exeter City0-1CheltenhamLeague One
2022-08-09Cheltenham0-7Exeter CityLeague Cup
2021-10-05Cheltenham2-2Exeter CityEFL Trophy
2021-03-13Exeter City0-1CheltenhamLeague Two
2020-12-05Cheltenham5-3Exeter CityLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match