Rochdale vs York: model vs market
| Source | Rochdale | Draw | York |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 22% | 51% |
| Market | 23% | 24% | 53% |
| Published | 24% | 23% | 53% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 1.66.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rochdale vs York odds movement
Median bookmaker price on York, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rochdale | 3.69 | 4.05 | +0.36 |
| Draw | 3.82 | 3.92 | +0.10 |
| York | 1.82 | 1.75 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rochdale and York expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.94
- Attack rating (Rochdale / York)
- 1.05 / 1.36
- Defence rating (Rochdale / York)
- 1.41 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rochdale vs York score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rochdale goals. Columns: York goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rochdale vs York goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rochdale vs York
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rochdale | 24% | 4.15 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.31 | |
| York | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75% | 1.33 |
| Under 2.5 | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rochdale or draw) | 47% | 2.11 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.30 | |
| X2 (draw or York) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| Handicap -1 | York win by 2+ | 32% | 3.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rochdale and York recent form
Rochdale
1W 2D 3L
York
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rochdale at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
York away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 2.29
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rochdale at home only, York away only.
Expected lineups
Rochdale lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 20 Sam William John Waller
- 21 Kane Taylor
- 3 Kaiden Wilson
- 44 A. Flint
- 13 O. Adebayo-Rowling
- 24 J. Allen
- 8 H. Gilmour
- 45 G. Middleton
- 11 Z. Silcott-Duberry
- 19 L. Hannant
- 39 D. Brown
Bench: R. East, E. Ebanks-Landell, C. Hayes, E. Francis, B. Adeeko, B. Bilongo, I. Henderson
York lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 Alfie Shane McNally
- 3 M. Kitching
- 5 Z. Johnson
- 2 R. Fallowfield
- 12 H. Boyes
- 16 A. Read
- 8 A. Hunt
- 23 J. Felix
- 21 H. Boateng
- 28 O. Banks
- 10 O. Pearce
Bench: Z. Medley, J. Grey, F. Maguire, J. Malcolm, A. Newby, G. Sykes-Kenworthy
Rochdale vs York head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Rochdale 1 · draws 5 · York 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Rochdale | 1-1 | York | National League |
| 2025-11-11 | York | 4-1 | Rochdale | National League |
| 2025-10-11 | Rochdale | 1-2 | York | England FA Cup |
| 2025-03-25 | Rochdale | 0-4 | York | National League |
| 2024-08-20 | York | 1-0 | Rochdale | National League |
| 2023-12-16 | Rochdale | 0-0 | York | National League |
| 2023-08-28 | York | 1-3 | Rochdale | National League |
| 2014-04-05 | Rochdale | 0-0 | York | League Two |
| 2013-11-30 | York | 0-0 | Rochdale | League Two |
| 2013-03-12 | York | 0-0 | Rochdale | League Two |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Exeter City vs Cheltenham — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Rotherham vs Crawley Town 2026-11-14
- Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield — match page 2026-11-14
- Walsall vs Barnet 2026-11-14
- Port Vale v Accrington ST — match page 2026-11-14
- Shrewsbury vs Oldham — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Swindon Town vs Grimsby 2026-11-14
- Colchester v Gillingham — match page 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Rochdale, previous: Fleetwood Town – Rochdale, 2026-11-07
- Rochdale, next: Northampton v Rochdale analysis
- York, previous: York – Northampton, 2026-11-07
- York, next: York vs Walsall: odds and pick