Updated

League Two · Matchday 15Postponed

Rotherham vs Crawley Town

· New York Stadium, Rotherham

Alin prediction Rotherham to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
RotherhamDrawCrawley Town
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.19.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rotherham is the favourite, not a value bet.

Rotherham vs Crawley Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRotherhamDrawCrawley Town
Model51%25%24%
Market45%26%29%
Published47%26%27%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.19.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rotherham vs Crawley Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rotherham, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 1.97Now 2.07 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rotherham1.972.07+0.10
Draw3.583.55-0.03
Crawley Town3.403.25-0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rotherham and Crawley Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Rotherham
1.19Crawley Town
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Rotherham / Crawley Town)
1.06 / 0.82
Defence rating (Rotherham / Crawley Town)
1.23 / 1.21

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rotherham vs Crawley Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.0% 4.8% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 1 7.9% 11.7% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 2 8.2% 9.7% 5.8% 2.3% 0.9% 3 5.0% 5.9% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 3.4% 4.0% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4%

Rows: Rotherham goals. Columns: Crawley Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rotherham vs Crawley Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 58%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rotherham vs Crawley Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rotherham47%2.15
Draw26%3.85
Crawley Town27%3.64
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558%1.73
Under 2.542%2.37
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.69
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Rotherham or draw)73%1.38
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Crawley Town)53%1.87
Handicap -1Rotherham win by 2+29%3.42
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rotherham and Crawley Town recent form

Rotherham 1W 2D 3L
Crawley Town 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rotherham at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-5-1
Win rate
14%
Goals for / match
1.86
Goals against / match
2.14
Clean sheets
0 of 7
  • They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Crawley Town away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-3
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.17
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rotherham at home only, Crawley Town away only.

Rotherham vs Crawley Town head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Rotherham 1 · draws 1 · Crawley Town 4.

RotherhamDrawsCrawley Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-29Rotherham0-4Crawley TownLeague One
2024-11-23Crawley Town1-0RotherhamLeague One
2014-01-25Rotherham2-2Crawley TownLeague One
2013-08-17Crawley Town1-2RotherhamLeague One
2012-03-24Crawley Town3-0RotherhamLeague Two
2011-11-26Rotherham1-2Crawley TownLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match