Updated

League Two · Matchday 15

Crewe vs Newport County

· Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Crewe to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CreweDrawNewport County

Crewe vs Newport County: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCreweDrawNewport County
Model29%27%44%
Market45%28%27%
Published41%27%31%
Edge-4%0%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Crewe vs Newport County odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Crewe, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.

Opened 2.02Now 2.05 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Crewe2.022.05+0.03
Draw3.423.38-0.04
Newport County3.403.41+0.01

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crewe and Newport County expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Crewe
1.61Newport County
Total expected goals
2.89
Attack rating (Crewe / Newport County)
1.04 / 1.19
Defence rating (Crewe / Newport County)
1.14 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crewe vs Newport County score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 7.8% 7.2% 3.9% 2.2% 1 6.0% 12.6% 9.2% 4.9% 2.8% 2 4.6% 7.3% 5.9% 3.2% 1.8% 3 1.9% 3.1% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 4+ 0.8% 1.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Crewe goals. Columns: Newport County goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crewe vs Newport County goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crewe vs Newport County

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Crewe41%2.42
Draw27%3.66
Newport County31%3.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.23
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.70
No41%2.43
Double chance1X (Crewe or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Newport County)59%1.70
Handicap -1Crewe win by 2+13%7.68
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Crewe and Newport County recent form

Crewe 3W 1D 2L
Newport County 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Crewe at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-4-0
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.71
Goals against / match
1.14
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Newport County away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.86
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Crewe at home only, Newport County away only.

Expected lineups

Crewe lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 13 I. Lawlor
  2. 3 R. Hutchinson
  3. 12 J. Stephenson
  4. 6 L. Offord
  5. 2 L. Billington
  6. 8 C. Thomas
  7. 17 M. Holíček
  8. 14 J. Gibson
  9. 10 J. White
  10. 23 C. McNeill
  11. 9 J. March

Bench: T. Booth, J. Tabiner, O. Lunt, Calum Agius, J. Jones, A. Thibaut, Stan Dancey

Newport County lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Wright
  2. 16 M. Jacob
  3. 4 K. Cameron
  4. 5 L. Jenkins
  5. 34 D. Sassi
  6. 6 C. Brennan
  7. 8 M. Smith
  8. 18 A. Lewis
  9. 10 H. Biggins
  10. 20 Y. Bamba
  11. 28 K. Etete

Bench: T. Davies, K. Evans, S. Gwengwe, J. Crole, G. Garner, M. Adu-Poku, J. Turner

Crewe vs Newport County head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Crewe 1 · draws 3 · Newport County 5.

CreweDrawsNewport County
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-12-29Newport County2-0CreweLeague Two
2025-12-10Crewe2-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2025-02-08Crewe0-3Newport CountyLeague Two
2024-09-28Newport County2-1CreweLeague Two
2023-12-29Newport County1-1CreweLeague Two
2023-08-15Crewe4-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2023-05-08Newport County2-2CreweLeague Two
2022-12-02Crewe1-2Newport CountyLeague Two
2019-08-24Newport County1-0CreweLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match