Gillingham vs Crewe preview
In the League Two fixture between Gillingham and Crewe, Gillingham has a 43% chance to win, while Crewe sits at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.63 for Gillingham and 1.33 for Crewe.
Both teams to score has a 60% probability, indicating that scoring from both sides is likely. However, Gillingham's recent form shows inconsistency with two wins in their last five matches, which could impact their performance. Crewe, on the other hand, has shown improvement with three wins in their last five games, suggesting they could pose a challenge.
Gillingham vs Crewe: model vs market
| Source | Gillingham | Draw | Crewe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.33.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Gillingham and Crewe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.97
- Attack rating (Gillingham / Crewe)
- 1.01 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Gillingham / Crewe)
- 1.09 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gillingham vs Crewe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gillingham goals. Columns: Crewe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gillingham vs Crewe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gillingham vs Crewe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 43% | 2.30 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.79 | |
| Crewe | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gillingham or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Crewe) | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win by 2+ | 23% | 4.35 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Gillingham and Crewe recent form
Gillingham
2W 1D 3L
Crewe
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Gillingham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Crewe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-2
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Gillingham at home only, Crewe away only.
Gillingham vs Crewe head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Gillingham 1 · draws 0 · Crewe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Crewe | 1-0 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2025-08-23 | Gillingham | 1-0 | Crewe | League Two |
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Before and after this match
- Gillingham, previous: Colchester vs Gillingham prediction
- Crewe, previous: Crewe – Newport County, 2026-11-14
- Crewe, next: Crewe vs Plymouth prediction