Barnet vs Port Vale preview
In the League Two fixture between Barnet and Port Vale, the 1X2 probabilities from our model show Barnet at 60% to win, with a most likely scoreline of 2-1 at 10%. Barnet's expected goals are 2.17, while Port Vale's are 1.15, indicating a strong attacking potential for Barnet.
However, the confidence grade is C, suggesting uncertainty in the outcome. Port Vale's recent form includes 4 wins in their last 6 matches, which could challenge Barnet's chances. Additionally, both teams to score is at 61%, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 65%, indicating a potential for a high-scoring match, but the recent form of Port Vale could lead to a different result.
Barnet vs Port Vale: model vs market
| Source | Barnet | Draw | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.15.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Barnet and Port Vale expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Barnet / Port Vale)
- 1.47 / 1.03
- Defence rating (Barnet / Port Vale)
- 0.95 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Barnet vs Port Vale score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Barnet goals. Columns: Port Vale goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Barnet vs Port Vale goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Barnet vs Port Vale
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnet | 60% | 1.67 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Port Vale | 18% | 5.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.55 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Barnet or draw) | 82% | 1.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Port Vale) | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnet win by 2+ | 38% | 2.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Barnet and Port Vale recent form
Barnet
3W 2D 1L
Port Vale
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barnet at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-2-1
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 2.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
Port Vale away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-1-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 12 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Barnet at home only, Port Vale away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page 2026-11-21
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Oldham vs Exeter City 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Grimsby vs Rotherham 2026-11-21
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Barnet, previous: Walsall vs Barnet prediction
- Barnet, next: Plymouth Parkway v Barnet analysis
- Port Vale, previous: Port Vale – Accrington ST, 2026-11-14
- Port Vale, next: Port Vale vs Leyton Orient prediction