Oldham vs Exeter City preview
In the League Two fixture between Oldham and Exeter City, the 1X2 probabilities show Oldham at 25%, a draw at 36%, and Exeter City at 39%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with a 16% chance according to our model.
Oldham's expected goals stand at 0.75, while Exeter City has 1.00. The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is only 26%, and both teams to score sits at 35%. These figures suggest a low-scoring game, but if Oldham's recent form improves or Exeter City underperforms, the outcome could differ from the predictions.
Oldham vs Exeter City: model vs market
| Source | Oldham | Draw | Exeter City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25% | 36% | 39% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 25% | 36% | 39% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Oldham and Exeter City expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.76
- Attack rating (Oldham / Exeter City)
- 0.88 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Oldham / Exeter City)
- 0.99 / 0.60
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Oldham vs Exeter City score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Oldham goals. Columns: Exeter City goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Oldham vs Exeter City goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Oldham vs Exeter City
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oldham | 25% | 3.95 |
| Draw | 36% | 2.81 | |
| Exeter City | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26% | 3.88 |
| Under 2.5 | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.87 |
| No | 65% | 1.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Oldham or draw) | 61% | 1.64 |
| 12 (either side) | 64% | 1.55 | |
| X2 (draw or Exeter City) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Handicap -1 | Exeter City win by 2+ | 16% | 6.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Oldham and Exeter City recent form
Oldham
3W 1D 2L
Exeter City
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Oldham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.57
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
Exeter City away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Oldham at home only, Exeter City away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page 2026-11-21
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Grimsby vs Rotherham 2026-11-21
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Oldham, previous: Shrewsbury v Oldham analysis
- Oldham, next: Grimsby v Oldham analysis
- Exeter City, previous: Exeter City vs Cheltenham prediction
- Exeter City, next: Exeter City – Stevenage, 2026-12-05