Grimsby vs Rotherham preview
In the upcoming match between Grimsby and Rotherham, the 1X2 probabilities show Grimsby at 61%, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1 at 8%. Grimsby has an expected goals figure of 2.59, while Rotherham sits at 1.48. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Grimsby.
However, Rotherham's recent form includes a win and two draws, which could impact the match outcome. The model indicates a high chance of Over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams to score at 72%. If Rotherham can improve their scoring, the match dynamics could shift, making the predicted scoreline less reliable.
Grimsby vs Rotherham: model vs market
| Source | Grimsby | Draw | Rotherham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.59 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Grimsby and Rotherham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.07
- Attack rating (Grimsby / Rotherham)
- 1.48 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Grimsby / Rotherham)
- 1.19 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Grimsby vs Rotherham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Grimsby goals. Columns: Rotherham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Grimsby vs Rotherham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Grimsby vs Rotherham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Grimsby | 61% | 1.64 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.20 | |
| Rotherham | 20% | 5.02 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 77% | 1.29 |
| Under 2.5 | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Grimsby or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Rotherham) | 39% | 2.55 | |
| Handicap -1 | Grimsby win by 2+ | 41% | 2.44 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Grimsby and Rotherham recent form
Grimsby
2W 2D 2L
Rotherham
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Grimsby at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Rotherham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Grimsby at home only, Rotherham away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page 2026-11-21
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Oldham vs Exeter City 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Grimsby, previous: Swindon Town vs Grimsby: odds and pick
- Grimsby, next: Grimsby v Oldham analysis
- Rotherham, previous: Rotherham – Crawley Town, 2026-11-14
- Rotherham, next: Rotherham – Bristol Rovers, 2026-12-05