Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury preview
Chesterfield faces Shrewsbury with a 53% chance of winning compared to Shrewsbury's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which occurs 8% of the time in our model. Chesterfield has an expected goals figure of 2.45, while Shrewsbury sits at 1.72.
Both teams to score stands at 76%, and Over 2.5 goals is at 79%. However, Chesterfield's recent form shows inconsistency with two draws and a loss in their last five matches. Shrewsbury has also had mixed results, winning two of their last five. These factors could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury: model vs market
| Source | Chesterfield | Draw | Shrewsbury |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 20% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 53% | 20% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.72.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Chesterfield and Shrewsbury expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.17
- Attack rating (Chesterfield / Shrewsbury)
- 1.49 / 1.12
- Defence rating (Chesterfield / Shrewsbury)
- 1.31 / 1.16
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chesterfield goals. Columns: Shrewsbury goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 76%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chesterfield | 53% | 1.87 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.89 | |
| Shrewsbury | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 79% | 1.27 |
| Under 2.5 | 21% | 4.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 76% | 1.32 |
| No | 24% | 4.11 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chesterfield or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Shrewsbury) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chesterfield win by 2+ | 34% | 2.92 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Chesterfield and Shrewsbury recent form
Chesterfield
2W 2D 2L
Shrewsbury
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chesterfield at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 2.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
Shrewsbury away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-3
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chesterfield at home only, Shrewsbury away only.
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Chesterfield 1 · draws 0 · Shrewsbury 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Chesterfield | 2-3 | Shrewsbury | League Two |
| 2025-12-20 | Shrewsbury | 0-1 | Chesterfield | League Two |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
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- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Chesterfield, previous: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield analysis
- Chesterfield, next: Chesterfield vs Cheltenham: odds and pick
- Shrewsbury, previous: Shrewsbury v Oldham analysis
- Shrewsbury, next: Shrewsbury – Burton Albion, 2026-12-05