Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town preview
Crawley Town faces Fleetwood Town with a 31% chance of winning for Crawley compared to 41% for Fleetwood. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.29 for Crawley and 1.50 for Fleetwood.
Both teams to score stands at 58%, while Over 2.5 goals is at 53%. Crawley’s recent form shows L-W-D-L-L-D, while Fleetwood has L-W-D-L-L-W. The head-to-head record is even, with both teams having 1 win each in their last 2 encounters. A lower goal tally or a draw could challenge the predictions.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town: model vs market
| Source | Crawley Town | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 31% | 28% | 41% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.79
- Attack rating (Crawley Town / Fleetwood Town)
- 0.82 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Crawley Town / Fleetwood Town)
- 1.21 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crawley Town goals. Columns: Fleetwood Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crawley Town | 31% | 3.18 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.63 | |
| Fleetwood Town | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.12 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.74 |
| No | 42% | 2.35 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crawley Town or draw) | 59% | 1.69 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Fleetwood Town) | 69% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Fleetwood Town win by 2+ | 21% | 4.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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| 1 |  |
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Crawley Town and Fleetwood Town recent form
Crawley Town
1W 2D 3L
Fleetwood Town
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crawley Town at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
Fleetwood Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crawley Town at home only, Fleetwood Town away only.
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Crawley Town 1 · draws 0 · Fleetwood Town 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | Crawley Town | League Two |
| 2025-11-08 | Crawley Town | 2-1 | Fleetwood Town | League Two |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page 2026-11-21
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Oldham vs Exeter City 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Grimsby vs Rotherham 2026-11-21
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
- Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Crawley Town, previous: Rotherham – Crawley Town, 2026-11-14
- Fleetwood Town, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere: odds and pick