Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers preview
In the League Two match between Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers, the 1X2 probabilities show Cheltenham at 47%, while Bristol Rovers sit at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a probability of 9%. Cheltenham's expected goals are 1.65 compared to Bristol Rovers' 1.18, indicating a stronger attacking performance.
However, recent form could affect the outcome. Cheltenham has a mixed record with L-W-L-W-W-L, while Bristol Rovers have struggled, recording W-L-D-L-L-L. The model suggests a 54% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score, but if Bristol Rovers find their form, these predictions might not hold.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers: model vs market
| Source | Cheltenham | Draw | Bristol Rovers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 1.18.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.83
- Attack rating (Cheltenham / Bristol Rovers)
- 1.05 / 0.87
- Defence rating (Cheltenham / Bristol Rovers)
- 1.16 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cheltenham goals. Columns: Bristol Rovers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cheltenham | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Bristol Rovers | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.33 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cheltenham or draw) | 74% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Bristol Rovers) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cheltenham win by 2+ | 25% | 3.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Cheltenham and Bristol Rovers recent form
Cheltenham
3W 0D 3L
Bristol Rovers
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cheltenham at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-1-1
- Win rate
- 71%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 6 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bristol Rovers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-6
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.14
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cheltenham at home only, Bristol Rovers away only.
Cheltenham vs Bristol Rovers head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Cheltenham 1 · draws 0 · Bristol Rovers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bristol Rovers | 4-0 | Cheltenham | League Two |
| 2025-11-22 | Cheltenham | 1-0 | Bristol Rovers | League Two |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Northampton v Rochdale — match page 2026-11-21
- Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Oldham vs Exeter City 2026-11-21
- Accrington ST v Salford City — match page 2026-11-21
- Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Grimsby vs Rotherham 2026-11-21
- Barnet v Port Vale — match page 2026-11-21
- Tranmere vs Colchester 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Cheltenham, previous: Exeter City vs Cheltenham prediction
- Cheltenham, next: Chesterfield vs Cheltenham: odds and pick
- Bristol Rovers, previous: Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield analysis
- Bristol Rovers, next: Rotherham – Bristol Rovers, 2026-12-05