Tranmere vs Colchester preview
In the League Two fixture between Tranmere and Colchester, the 1X2 probabilities show Tranmere at 47%, with the most likely scoreline being 1-0 at 13%. Colchester has a lower probability of winning at 23%, but their recent form includes a win, which could influence the match outcome.
Tranmere's expected goals stand at 1.39, while Colchester's is 0.91, indicating a potential advantage for Tranmere. However, the 40% chance for Over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score suggest that Colchester could find the net, challenging Tranmere's defense. The confidence grade is C, reflecting uncertainty in the match's outcome.
Tranmere vs Colchester: model vs market
| Source | Tranmere | Draw | Colchester |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 30% | 23% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.91.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Tranmere and Colchester expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.30
- Attack rating (Tranmere / Colchester)
- 0.95 / 0.71
- Defence rating (Tranmere / Colchester)
- 1.08 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Tranmere vs Colchester score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Tranmere goals. Columns: Colchester goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Tranmere vs Colchester goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Tranmere vs Colchester
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tranmere | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.35 | |
| Colchester | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Tranmere or draw) | 77% | 1.31 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Colchester) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Tranmere win by 2+ | 23% | 4.31 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Tranmere and Colchester recent form
Tranmere
2W 2D 2L
Colchester
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Tranmere at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-1
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Colchester away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.86
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Tranmere at home only, Colchester away only.
Tranmere vs Colchester head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Tranmere 0 · draws 1 · Colchester 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Tranmere | 0-1 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2025-08-02 | Colchester | 1-1 | Tranmere | League Two |
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Before and after this match
- Tranmere, previous: Fleetwood Town vs Tranmere: odds and pick
- Colchester, previous: Colchester vs Gillingham prediction
- Colchester, next: Colchester vs Mansfield Town: odds and pick