Colchester vs Gillingham: model vs market
| Source | Colchester | Draw | Gillingham |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 31% | 38% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Published | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Colchester vs Gillingham odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Colchester, 23 snapshots since 2026-11-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 2.15 | 2.10 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.34 | +0.06 |
| Gillingham | 3.20 | 3.38 | +0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Colchester and Gillingham expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.32
- Attack rating (Colchester / Gillingham)
- 0.71 / 1.01
- Defence rating (Colchester / Gillingham)
- 1.03 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Colchester vs Gillingham score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Colchester goals. Columns: Gillingham goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Colchester vs Gillingham goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Colchester vs Gillingham
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Colchester | 41% | 2.43 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Gillingham | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.07 |
| No | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Colchester or draw) | 70% | 1.43 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Gillingham) | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Handicap -1 | Colchester win by 2+ | 13% | 7.66 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Colchester and Gillingham recent form
Colchester
1W 2D 3L
Gillingham
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Colchester at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gillingham away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Colchester at home only, Gillingham away only.
Expected lineups
Colchester lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 22 T. Lo-Tutala
- 3 E. Iandolo
- 20 S. Raggett
- 5 J. Tucker
- 30 K. Vincent-Young
- 8 E. Bishop
- 26 J. Williams
- 7 H. Anderson
- 10 J. Payne
- 12 M. Sesay
- 17 Jaden Williams
Bench: Ben Perry, P. Digby, Adrian Moyosoreoluwa Ameer Akande, O. Thorn, K. Connelly, S. Kuffour
Gillingham lineup · 3-4-3
- 1 O. Wright
- 26 L. Dobbs
- 19 O. Beckles
- 15 Z. Albarus
- 16 J. Brophy
- 6 E. Coleman
- 24 H. Waldock
- 22 N. Freeman
- 12 G. McCleary
- 11 L. Sillah
- 18 S. Kendall
Bench: A. Smith, A. Little, Ronan Hale, C. Antwi, J. Daley, R. Luthra
Colchester vs Gillingham head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Colchester 4 · draws 4 · Gillingham 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-29 | Gillingham | 1-1 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2025-12-06 | Colchester | 0-0 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2025-10-07 | Colchester | 2-1 | Gillingham | EFL Trophy |
| 2025-04-01 | Gillingham | 1-1 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2024-12-26 | Colchester | 2-0 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2024-01-01 | Colchester | 0-1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2023-08-26 | Gillingham | 0-3 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2023-01-21 | Colchester | 0-2 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2022-12-26 | Gillingham | 0-1 | Colchester | League Two |
| 2022-10-11 | Gillingham | 1-1 | Colchester | EFL Trophy |
Other Matchday 15 fixtures
- Exeter City vs Cheltenham — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Rotherham vs Crawley Town 2026-11-14
- Bristol Rovers v Chesterfield — match page 2026-11-14
- Rochdale vs York — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Walsall vs Barnet 2026-11-14
- Port Vale v Accrington ST — match page 2026-11-14
- Shrewsbury vs Oldham — team news & stats 2026-11-14
- Swindon Town vs Grimsby 2026-11-14
Before and after this match
- Colchester, previous: Colchester – Worcester City, 2026-11-07
- Colchester, next: Tranmere v Colchester analysis
- Gillingham, previous: Gillingham v Barrow analysis
- Gillingham, next: Gillingham vs Crewe prediction