Gillingham vs Barrow: model vs market
| Source | Gillingham | Draw | Barrow |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | 48% | 26% | 26% |
| Published | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.65 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Gillingham vs Barrow odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Gillingham, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gillingham | 1.91 | 1.95 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.55 | -0.15 |
| Barrow | 3.73 | 3.56 | -0.17 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Gillingham and Barrow expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Gillingham / Barrow)
- 0.91 / 0.70
- Defence rating (Gillingham / Barrow)
- 0.96 / 1.00
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Gillingham vs Barrow score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Gillingham goals. Columns: Barrow goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Gillingham vs Barrow goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Gillingham vs Barrow
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gillingham | 49% | 2.05 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Barrow | 25% | 4.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Gillingham or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Barrow) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Gillingham win by 2+ | 28% | 3.51 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Gillingham and Barrow recent form
Gillingham
2W 2D 2L
Barrow
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Barrow away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 1
League matches this season before kick-off: Gillingham at home only, Barrow away only.
Expected lineups
Gillingham lineup
- 6 E. Coleman
- 24 H. Waldock
- 16 J. Brophy
- 20 J. Daley
- 26 L. Dobbs
- 22 N. Freeman
- 19 O. Beckles
- 1 O. Wright
- 14 R. McKenzie
- 10 Ronan Hale
Bench: A. Smith, A. Little, G. McCleary, Z. Albarus, S. Kendall, M. Luxton, S. Booth, Louie Dayal, R. Luthra
Barrow lineup
- 19 A. Allen
- 1 B. Winterbottom
- 27 I. Marriott
- 2 M. Oakley
- 25 P. Kalambayi
- 26 R. Harper
- 20 R. Otegbayo
- 14 Sebastian Blake Thompson
- 36 T. Latty-Fairweather
- 33 Xavier Deandrae Benjamin
Bench: A. Reid, K. Ward, George Walker, Mohamed Katia Kouyate, I. Cameron, D. Amos, N. Cooper
Gillingham vs Barrow head-to-head
Last 8 meetings: Gillingham 3 · draws 2 · Barrow 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Barrow | 0-1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2025-12-13 | Gillingham | 2-2 | Barrow | League Two |
| 2025-02-08 | Barrow | 3-0 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2024-09-28 | Gillingham | 2-0 | Barrow | League Two |
| 2024-04-13 | Gillingham | 3-0 | Barrow | League Two |
| 2024-03-05 | Barrow | 2-0 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2023-04-01 | Barrow | 2-1 | Gillingham | League Two |
| 2022-10-22 | Gillingham | 1-1 | Barrow | League Two |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page 2026-11-06
- Oxford City v Leicester — match page 2026-11-06
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2026-11-07
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Oxford United vs Stevenage 2026-11-07
- Bradford v Marine — match page 2026-11-07
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Gillingham, next: Colchester vs Gillingham prediction
- Barrow, next: Barrow vs Kidderminster Harriers: odds and pick