Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

· Memorial Stadium, Bristol

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Cambridge United to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Bristol RoversDrawCambridge United

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBristol RoversDrawCambridge United
Model33%30%37%
Market32%26%42%
Published32%27%41%
Edge0%+1%-1%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cambridge United, 4 snapshots since 2026-11-05.

Opened 2.10Now 2.20 +0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bristol Rovers3.102.92-0.18
Draw3.673.55-0.12
Cambridge United2.102.20+0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Bristol Rovers
1.27Cambridge United
Total expected goals
2.44
Attack rating (Bristol Rovers / Cambridge United)
0.66 / 0.85
Defence rating (Bristol Rovers / Cambridge United)
1.01 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.0% 9.7% 7.0% 3.0% 1.2% 1 8.9% 14.2% 8.2% 3.5% 1.5% 2 6.0% 7.6% 4.8% 2.0% 0.9% 3 2.3% 3.0% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 0.9% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Bristol Rovers goals. Columns: Cambridge United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 44%
Over 3.5 23%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bristol Rovers32%3.13
Draw27%3.69
Cambridge United41%2.44
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.26
Under 2.556%1.79
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.96
No49%2.04
Double chance1X (Bristol Rovers or draw)59%1.69
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Cambridge United)68%1.47
Handicap -1Cambridge United win by 2+17%5.84
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bristol Rovers and Cambridge United recent form

Bristol Rovers 0W 1D 5L
Cambridge United 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Bristol Rovers lineup · 4-1-2-1-2

  1. 1 Brad Young
  2. 14 B. Purrington
  3. 5 A. Kilgour
  4. 4 K. Balmer
  5. 2 T. James
  6. 22 Keenan Gough
  7. 8 R. Russell-Denny
  8. 6 C. Mola
  9. 24 T. Leigh
  10. 29 F. Cavegn
  11. 9 J. Quigley

Bench: J. Sparkes, S. Forde, B. Kamwa, C. Kelly, M. Southam-Hales, P. Sanyaolu, A. Appiah, Charlie Binns, R. De Havilland

Cambridge United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Eastwood
  2. 22 Z. Bradshaw
  3. 5 P. Bauer
  4. 6 K. Watts
  5. 2 L. Bennett
  6. 17 P. Mpanzu
  7. 8 O. Moxon
  8. 11 S. Kaikai
  9. 10 B. Knight
  10. 44 Raees Bangura-Williams
  11. 9 L. Appéré

Bench: Callum Perry, Isaac Heath, G. Breeze, S. Lavery, S. McLoughlin, S. Curtis, G. Hoddle

Bristol Rovers vs Cambridge United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bristol Rovers 6 · draws 1 · Cambridge United 3.

Bristol RoversDrawsCambridge United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14Cambridge United3-1Bristol RoversLeague Two
2025-12-02Bristol Rovers2-2Cambridge UnitedEFL Trophy
2025-08-23Bristol Rovers1-0Cambridge UnitedLeague Two
2025-08-12Bristol Rovers0-2Cambridge UnitedLeague Cup
2025-01-04Cambridge United0-1Bristol RoversLeague One
2024-08-31Bristol Rovers2-0Cambridge UnitedLeague One
2024-04-16Bristol Rovers1-0Cambridge UnitedLeague One
2023-08-19Cambridge United2-0Bristol RoversLeague One
2023-01-07Cambridge United1-2Bristol RoversLeague One
2022-10-08Bristol Rovers2-1Cambridge UnitedLeague One

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match