Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Bradford vs Marine

· Valley Parade, Bradford

Full time7 – 0

Alin prediction was Bradford to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BradfordDrawMarine

Bradford vs Marine: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBradfordDrawMarine
Model33%34%32%
Market73%17%10%
Published63%21%16%
Edge-10%+4%+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bradford vs Marine odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bradford, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.25Now 1.27 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bradford1.251.27+0.02
Draw5.655.40-0.25
Marine10.009.28-0.72

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bradford and Marine expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.97Bradford
0.95Marine
Total expected goals
1.91
Attack rating (Bradford / Marine)
0.63 / 1.17
Defence rating (Bradford / Marine)
0.54 / 0.85

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bradford vs Marine score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 16.1% 12.6% 6.6% 2.1% 0.6% 1 12.9% 14.9% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 2 6.9% 6.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 3 2.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 0.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Bradford goals. Columns: Marine goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bradford vs Marine goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 84%
Over 1.5 58%
Over 2.5 30%
Over 3.5 13%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
16%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bradford vs Marine

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bradford63%1.59
Draw21%4.65
Marine16%6.43
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.530%3.34
Under 2.570%1.43
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.55
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (Bradford or draw)84%1.18
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Marine)37%2.70
Handicap -1Bradford win by 2+13%7.78
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bradford and Marine recent form

Bradford 2W 3D 1L
Marine 4W 0D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Marine away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
1 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Bradford at home only, Marine away only.

Expected lineups

Bradford lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 21 J. McCracken
  2. 5 M. Gillesphey
  3. 15 A. Baldwin
  4. 28 M. Pennington
  5. 3 I. Touray
  6. 6 C. Connolly
  7. 22 Kieran Morgan
  8. 19 K. Jackson
  9. 23 B. Pointon
  10. 8 A. Phillips
  11. 25 N. Powell

Bench: C. Dawson, R. Welch, S. Humphrys, H. Matthews, George Christopher John Pratt, W. Swan, C. O'Keeffe, G. Lapslie

Marine lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 3 J. Doyle
  2. 17 C. Jolley
  3. 9 G. Newell
  4. 7 Finlay Sinclair-Smith

Bench: C. McAleny

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match