Updated

League One · Matchday 15Postponed

Leicester vs Bradford

· King Power Stadium, Leicester

Alin prediction Leicester to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LeicesterDrawBradford
  • WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leicester is the favourite, not a value bet.

Leicester vs Bradford: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeicesterDrawBradford
Model30%28%43%
Market50%25%24%
Published45%26%29%
Edge-5%+1%+5%
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Leicester vs Bradford odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leicester, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.82Now 1.80 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leicester1.821.80-0.02
Draw3.783.60-0.18
Bradford3.813.75-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leicester and Bradford expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Leicester
1.53Bradford
Total expected goals
2.77
Attack rating (Leicester / Bradford)
1.45 / 1.15
Defence rating (Leicester / Bradford)
1.13 / 0.58

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leicester vs Bradford score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.4% 8.3% 7.3% 3.7% 2.0% 1 6.6% 13.1% 9.1% 4.6% 2.5% 2 4.9% 7.4% 5.7% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.0% 3.1% 2.4% 1.2% 0.6% 4+ 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Leicester goals. Columns: Bradford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leicester vs Bradford goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leicester vs Bradford

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leicester45%2.21
Draw26%3.86
Bradford29%3.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.91
Under 2.548%2.10
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.32
Double chance1X (Leicester or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Bradford)55%1.82
Handicap -1Leicester win by 2+13%7.61
Push (exactly one goal)17%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Leicester and Bradford recent form

Leicester 4W 1D 1L
Bradford 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leicester at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.57
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.

Bradford away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-1
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
0.57
Goals against / match
0.43
Clean sheets
5 of 7
  • They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leicester at home only, Bradford away only.

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match