Updated

League One · Matchday 15

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

· Plough Lane, Wimbledon

Full time1 – 0

Alin prediction was Blackpool to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AFC WimbledonDrawBlackpool

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAFC WimbledonDrawBlackpool
Model28%27%45%
Market36%27%37%
Published34%27%39%
Edge-2%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Blackpool, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.48Now 2.52 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AFC Wimbledon2.622.63+0.01
Draw3.443.40-0.04
Blackpool2.482.52+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AFC Wimbledon and Blackpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.23AFC Wimbledon
1.59Blackpool
Total expected goals
2.82
Attack rating (AFC Wimbledon / Blackpool)
0.65 / 1.05
Defence rating (AFC Wimbledon / Blackpool)
1.29 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 8.4% 7.6% 4.0% 2.3% 1 6.2% 12.8% 9.3% 4.9% 2.8% 2 4.5% 7.2% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 3 1.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.2% 0.7% 4+ 0.7% 1.2% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: AFC Wimbledon goals. Columns: Blackpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AFC Wimbledon34%2.97
Draw27%3.65
Blackpool39%2.57
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.74
No43%2.35
Double chance1X (AFC Wimbledon or draw)61%1.64
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Blackpool)66%1.51
Handicap -1Blackpool win by 2+23%4.26
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AFC Wimbledon and Blackpool recent form

AFC Wimbledon 0W 1D 5L
Blackpool 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

AFC Wimbledon at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-3-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
4 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.

Blackpool away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
0 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

League matches this season before kick-off: AFC Wimbledon at home only, Blackpool away only.

Expected lineups

AFC Wimbledon lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 20 J. McDonnell
  2. 3 S. Seddon
  3. 33 I. Ogundere
  4. 17 A. Yiadom
  5. 29 A. Sasu
  6. 5 O. Harrison
  7. 12 A. Smith
  8. 7 J. Tilley
  9. 23 H. Cornick
  10. 8 C. Maycock
  11. 9 J. Stockley

Bench: N. Bishop, S. Sessegnon, Z. Nelson, F. Simmonds, M. Hippolyte, R. Horan, H. Hedges

Blackpool lineup · 4-1-3-2

  1. 23 L. Southwood
  2. 15 H. Coulson
  3. 3 Z. Ashworth
  4. 4 O. Casey
  5. 28 J. Williams
  6. 6 J. Brown
  7. 7 L. Clarkson
  8. 8 A. Morgan
  9. 21 I. Niskanen
  10. 14 T. Bloxham
  11. 18 D. Taylor

Bench: A. Lyons, N. Ennis, J. Yates, D. Charles, C. Hamilton, C. Brier

AFC Wimbledon vs Blackpool head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: AFC Wimbledon 4 · draws 3 · Blackpool 3.

AFC WimbledonDrawsBlackpool
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-11AFC Wimbledon4-1BlackpoolLeague One
2025-10-04Blackpool0-2AFC WimbledonLeague One
2021-03-06Blackpool1-1AFC WimbledonLeague One
2020-10-27AFC Wimbledon1-0BlackpoolLeague One
2020-02-22AFC Wimbledon0-0BlackpoolLeague One
2019-11-16Blackpool2-0AFC WimbledonLeague One
2018-12-29AFC Wimbledon0-0BlackpoolLeague One
2018-10-20Blackpool2-0AFC WimbledonLeague One
2018-01-20AFC Wimbledon2-0BlackpoolLeague One
2017-09-02Blackpool1-0AFC WimbledonLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match