Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool

· Hornchurch Stadium, Hornchurch

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was Blackpool to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AFC HornchurchDrawBlackpool

AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAFC HornchurchDrawBlackpool
Model59%22%19%
Market23%24%53%
Published32%23%45%
Edge+9%0%-9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Blackpool, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.75Now 1.75 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
AFC Hornchurch4.024.00-0.02
Draw3.983.94-0.04
Blackpool1.751.75+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13AFC Hornchurch
1.15Blackpool
Total expected goals
3.28
Attack rating (AFC Hornchurch / Blackpool)
1.07 / 0.85
Defence rating (AFC Hornchurch / Blackpool)
0.92 / 1.09

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.7% 3.4% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4% 1 7.1% 10.2% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 2 8.5% 9.8% 5.7% 2.2% 0.8% 3 6.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 5.2% 6.1% 3.5% 1.3% 0.5%

Rows: AFC Hornchurch goals. Columns: Blackpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for AFC Hornchurch vs Blackpool

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2AFC Hornchurch32%3.12
Draw23%4.30
Blackpool45%2.24
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.57
Under 2.536%2.75
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.58
Double chance1X (AFC Hornchurch or draw)55%1.81
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Blackpool)68%1.47
Handicap -1Blackpool win by 2+8%13.17
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

AFC Hornchurch and Blackpool recent form

AFC Hornchurch 2W 1D 2L
Blackpool 1W 1D 4L

Last 5 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

AFC Hornchurch lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 31 H. Taylor
  2. 6 T. Dallison-Lisbon
  3. 28 T. Adelusi
  4. 14 Charlie Pegrum
  5. 8 T. Wraight
  6. 27 Alfie Massey
  7. 18 M. Weston
  8. 10 Á. Balanta
  9. 30 R. Loft
  10. 7 J. Walker

Bench: J. Powell, H. Sandat, N. Ferguson, D. Poleon, Miles Bracking, A. Rowe

Blackpool lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 B. Peacock-Farrell
  2. 21 I. Niskanen
  3. 3 Z. Ashworth
  4. 4 O. Casey
  5. 2 A. Lyons
  6. 28 J. Williams
  7. 8 A. Morgan
  8. 6 J. Brown
  9. 17 Karoy Anderson
  10. 19 D. Charles
  11. 12 J. Yates

Bench: L. Clarkson, J. Bowler, T. Bloxham, H. Coulson, D. Taylor, L. Southwood, Finley Munroe, O. Hunter

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

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