Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

· Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Milton Keynes Dons to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Milton Keynes DonsDrawSwindon Town

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMilton Keynes DonsDrawSwindon Town
Model49%27%24%
Market63%21%16%
Published60%22%18%
Edge-3%+2%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.06.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Milton Keynes Dons, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.48Now 1.46 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Milton Keynes Dons1.481.46-0.02
Draw4.534.50-0.03
Swindon Town5.755.75+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.63Milton Keynes Dons
1.06Swindon Town
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Milton Keynes Dons / Swindon Town)
1.16 / 0.76
Defence rating (Milton Keynes Dons / Swindon Town)
0.94 / 0.78

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.0% 6.0% 3.8% 1.4% 0.5% 1 9.9% 12.9% 6.2% 2.2% 0.7% 2 9.0% 9.6% 5.1% 1.8% 0.6% 3 4.9% 5.2% 2.7% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 2.9% 3.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Milton Keynes Dons goals. Columns: Swindon Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Milton Keynes Dons60%1.67
Draw22%4.50
Swindon Town18%5.56
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.99
Under 2.550%2.01
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.86
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (Milton Keynes Dons or draw)82%1.22
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Swindon Town)40%2.49
Handicap -1Milton Keynes Dons win by 2+27%3.74
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Milton Keynes Dons and Swindon Town recent form

Milton Keynes Dons 4W 0D 2L
Swindon Town 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Milton Keynes Dons lineup · 3-5-2

  1. 20 Elijah Xavier Campbell
  2. 1 C. MacGillivray
  3. 24 R. Wintle
  4. 17 S. Silvera
  5. 5 C. Goode
  6. 8 A. Gilbey
  7. 21 M. Ekpiteta
  8. 7 D. Crowley
  9. 10 A. Collins
  10. 32 J. Sanders
  11. 9 S. Nombe

Bench: G. Jones, D. Barlaser, C. Paterson, C. Bramall, I. Fullah, B. Wiles, J. Matete, C. Nelson, S. Stacey

Swindon Town lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 1 C. Ripley
  2. 2 M. Clark
  3. 26 D. Butler
  4. 6 J. Ball
  5. 5 S. Negru
  6. 27 A. Munda
  7. 33 Joel McGregor
  8. 23 A. Drinan
  9. 24 M. Virtue-Thick
  10. 25 J. Thomson
  11. 19 J. Snowdon

Bench: T. Nichols, Lewis Moore Ward, K. Majekodunmi, J. Pearman, O. Palmer, A. Hackford, Lucas Griffiths-Brown, L. Millard

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Milton Keynes Dons 7 · draws 1 · Swindon Town 2.

Milton Keynes DonsDrawsSwindon Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-14Swindon Town1-2Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
2025-12-26Milton Keynes Dons1-0Swindon TownLeague Two
2025-11-11Milton Keynes Dons0-4Swindon TownEFL Trophy
2025-05-03Swindon Town0-0Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
2024-11-09Milton Keynes Dons3-1Swindon TownLeague Two
2024-02-17Swindon Town1-2Milton Keynes DonsLeague Two
2023-10-28Milton Keynes Dons3-2Swindon TownLeague Two
2021-04-24Milton Keynes Dons5-0Swindon TownLeague One
2020-12-29Swindon Town1-4Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
2019-02-09Milton Keynes Dons2-3Swindon TownLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match