Updated

League One · Matchday 15

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion

· Stadium MK, Milton Keynes

Full time6 – 2

Alin prediction was Milton Keynes Dons to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Milton Keynes DonsDrawBurton Albion

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMilton Keynes DonsDrawBurton Albion
Model51%23%25%
Market56%24%20%
Published55%24%21%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.37.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Milton Keynes Dons, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 1.58Now 1.67 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Milton Keynes Dons1.581.67+0.08
Draw4.033.98-0.05
Burton Albion5.004.68-0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01Milton Keynes Dons
1.37Burton Albion
Total expected goals
3.38
Attack rating (Milton Keynes Dons / Burton Albion)
1.39 / 1.09
Defence rating (Milton Keynes Dons / Burton Albion)
1.07 / 0.97

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 3.7% 3.2% 1.5% 0.7% 1 5.9% 10.3% 6.4% 2.9% 1.4% 2 6.9% 9.4% 6.5% 2.9% 1.4% 3 4.6% 6.3% 4.3% 2.0% 0.9% 4+ 3.7% 5.0% 3.5% 1.6% 0.7%

Rows: Milton Keynes Dons goals. Columns: Burton Albion goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 86%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Milton Keynes Dons55%1.81
Draw24%4.25
Burton Albion21%4.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566%1.52
Under 2.534%2.91
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.53
No34%2.90
Double chance1X (Milton Keynes Dons or draw)79%1.27
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or Burton Albion)45%2.23
Handicap -1Milton Keynes Dons win by 2+31%3.26
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Milton Keynes Dons and Burton Albion recent form

Milton Keynes Dons 5W 0D 1L
Burton Albion 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Milton Keynes Dons at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-1
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
2.14
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

Burton Albion away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-4
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
0.86
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 4 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Milton Keynes Dons at home only, Burton Albion away only.

Expected lineups

Milton Keynes Dons lineup · 3-1-4-2

  1. 23 W. Dennis
  2. 32 J. Sanders
  3. 5 C. Goode
  4. 21 M. Ekpiteta
  5. 24 R. Wintle
  6. 20 Elijah Xavier Campbell
  7. 8 A. Gilbey
  8. 7 D. Crowley
  9. 17 S. Silvera
  10. 13 C. Paterson
  11. 9 S. Nombe

Bench: C. MacGillivray, G. Jones, D. Barlaser, C. Bramall, I. Fullah, B. Wiles, C. Nelson

Burton Albion lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 34 C. Addai
  2. 16 C. Tilt
  3. 20 J. Sraha
  4. 24 Harvey Araujo
  5. 23 Emeka Adeile
  6. 4 K. Chauke
  7. 41 Sulyman Krubally
  8. 17 R. Borges Rodrigues
  9. 8 C. Webster
  10. 10 Mark O’Mahony

Bench: J. Kean, Zac Scutt, Miles Henry, W. Earley

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Milton Keynes Dons 4 · draws 3 · Burton Albion 2.

Milton Keynes DonsDrawsBurton Albion
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-05-07Burton Albion0-0Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
2022-12-03Milton Keynes Dons1-1Burton AlbionLeague One
2022-01-25Burton Albion0-1Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
2021-11-20Milton Keynes Dons1-0Burton AlbionLeague One
2021-08-31Burton Albion1-2Milton Keynes DonsEFL Trophy
2021-03-20Burton Albion1-2Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
2020-12-12Milton Keynes Dons1-1Burton AlbionLeague One
2020-01-14Burton Albion1-0Milton Keynes DonsLeague One
2019-10-05Milton Keynes Dons0-3Burton AlbionLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match