Updated

League One · Matchday 15

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth

· Hillsborough Stadium, Sheffield

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Sheffield Wednesday to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Sheffield WednesdayDrawPlymouth

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSheffield WednesdayDrawPlymouth
Model37%28%36%
Market41%26%32%
Published40%27%33%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Sheffield Wednesday, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.25Now 2.25 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Sheffield Wednesday2.252.25+0.00
Draw3.603.54-0.06
Plymouth2.842.88+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.42Sheffield Wednesday
1.39Plymouth
Total expected goals
2.80
Attack rating (Sheffield Wednesday / Plymouth)
1.02 / 1.24
Defence rating (Sheffield Wednesday / Plymouth)
0.96 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 7.2% 5.8% 2.7% 1.3% 1 7.4% 13.1% 8.3% 3.8% 1.8% 2 6.1% 8.4% 5.8% 2.7% 1.3% 3 2.9% 4.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Sheffield Wednesday goals. Columns: Plymouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Sheffield Wednesday40%2.48
Draw27%3.75
Plymouth33%3.02
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.88
Under 2.547%2.13
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.38
Double chance1X (Sheffield Wednesday or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Plymouth)60%1.67
Handicap -1Sheffield Wednesday win by 2+18%5.64
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Sheffield Wednesday and Plymouth recent form

Sheffield Wednesday 1W 2D 3L
Plymouth 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Sheffield Wednesday at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-4-1
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.71
Clean sheets
3 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Plymouth away

Record (W-D-L)
4-1-2
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.86
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
1 of 7
  • They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday at home only, Plymouth away only.

Expected lineups

Sheffield Wednesday lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Lumley
  2. 6 L. Cooper
  3. 26 S. Swinkels
  4. 5 D. Bernard
  5. 7 Y. Valery
  6. 16 B. Mitchell
  7. 10 B. Bannan
  8. 9 J. Lowe
  9. 8 C. Slattery
  10. 18 Jaden Heskey
  11. 50 D. Keillor-Dunn

Bench: L. Palmer, Ricardo, L. Barry, H. Gray, C. Trueman, Ernie Weaver, Jarvis Thornton

Plymouth lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 1 M. Mahoney
  2. 22 A. Hartridge
  3. 2 M. Ross
  4. 45 W. Harding
  5. 10 X. Amaechi
  6. 7 H. White
  7. 6 M. Boateng
  8. 11 R. Curtis
  9. 23 B. Ibrahim
  10. 9 W. Evans

Bench: O. Irow, C. Watts, Owen Oseni, James Storer, J. Mwaro

Sheffield Wednesday vs Plymouth head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Sheffield Wednesday 5 · draws 1 · Plymouth 4.

Sheffield WednesdayDrawsPlymouth
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2025-03-08Plymouth0-3Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
2024-08-11Sheffield Wednesday4-0PlymouthChampionship
2024-03-05Sheffield Wednesday1-0PlymouthChampionship
2023-10-25Plymouth3-0Sheffield WednesdayChampionship
2023-02-04Sheffield Wednesday1-0PlymouthLeague One
2022-10-04Plymouth2-1Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
2022-01-15Sheffield Wednesday4-2PlymouthLeague One
2021-11-16Plymouth3-0Sheffield WednesdayFA Cup
2021-11-07Sheffield Wednesday0-0PlymouthFA Cup
2021-09-11Plymouth3-0Sheffield WednesdayLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match