Updated

League One · Matchday 15

Wigan vs Barnsley

· DW Stadium, Wigan

Full time2 – 1

Alin prediction was Wigan to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WiganDrawBarnsley

Wigan vs Barnsley: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWiganDrawBarnsley
Model41%25%34%
Market41%25%34%
Published41%25%34%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wigan vs Barnsley odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wigan, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.38Now 2.30 -0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wigan2.382.30-0.08
Draw3.583.67+0.09
Barnsley2.662.75+0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wigan and Barnsley expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Wigan
1.57Barnsley
Total expected goals
3.32
Attack rating (Wigan / Barnsley)
0.86 / 1.35
Defence rating (Wigan / Barnsley)
0.99 / 1.37

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wigan vs Barnsley score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.6% 4.7% 4.5% 2.3% 1.3% 1 5.4% 10.9% 7.8% 4.1% 2.3% 2 5.6% 8.7% 6.8% 3.6% 2.0% 3 3.2% 5.1% 4.0% 2.1% 1.2% 4+ 2.1% 3.3% 2.6% 1.3% 0.7%

Rows: Wigan goals. Columns: Barnsley goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wigan vs Barnsley goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 64%
Over 3.5 42%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wigan vs Barnsley

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wigan41%2.45
Draw25%3.96
Barnsley34%2.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564%1.55
Under 2.536%2.81
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.97
Double chance1X (Wigan or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Barnsley)59%1.69
Handicap -1Wigan win by 2+22%4.48
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wigan and Barnsley recent form

Wigan 2W 1D 3L
Barnsley 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wigan at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-3
Win rate
43%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.43
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 3 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 14 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 14 matches.

Barnsley away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-4
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.83
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
  • 54% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wigan at home only, Barnsley away only.

Expected lineups

Wigan lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 41 J. Whitworth
  2. 3 M. Fox
  3. 23 J. Carragher
  4. 5 F. Burns
  5. 7 F. Murray
  6. 8 M. Power
  7. 6 J. Weir
  8. 2 C. Barrett
  9. 22 J. Mellish
  10. 27 B. Burrows
  11. 38 C. Saydee

Bench: J. Walsh, J. Chilokoa-Mullen, R. Trevitt, Archie Harris, A. Higgins, K'Marni Miller, S. Hogan

Barnsley lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 C. Slicker
  2. 3 Z. Larkeche
  3. 4 S. Gale
  4. 12 J. Okedina
  5. 2 A. Kay
  6. 48 L. Connell
  7. 14 D. Johnson
  8. 19 R. Cleary
  9. 8 C. McGeehan
  10. 45 Vimal Yoganathan
  11. 9 M. Kirk

Bench: T. Noslin, Isaac Smith, Amani Richards, Rogan Ravenhill, L. Alker

Wigan vs Barnsley head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Wigan 1 · draws 8 · Barnsley 1.

WiganDrawsBarnsley
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-08Barnsley1-1WiganLeague Cup
2026-03-17Barnsley1-1WiganLeague One
2026-01-01Wigan1-1BarnsleyLeague One
2025-03-29Wigan1-1BarnsleyLeague One
2024-11-23Barnsley0-1WiganLeague One
2024-08-13Wigan1-1BarnsleyLeague Cup
2024-01-01Barnsley1-1WiganLeague One
2023-08-26Wigan0-2BarnsleyLeague One
2020-07-11Barnsley0-0WiganChampionship
2019-08-31Wigan0-0BarnsleyChampionship

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match