Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Boreham Wood vs Wigan

· Meadow Park, Borehamwood

Full time0 – 3

Alin prediction was Boreham Wood to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Boreham WoodDrawWigan

Boreham Wood vs Wigan: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBoreham WoodDrawWigan
Model67%21%12%
Market54%23%23%
Published58%22%20%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Boreham Wood below our published probability: +3.1 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Boreham Wood vs Wigan odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Boreham Wood, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.75Now 1.70 -0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Boreham Wood1.751.70-0.05
Draw4.024.10+0.08
Wigan3.934.04+0.11

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Boreham Wood and Wigan expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.13Boreham Wood
0.81Wigan
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Boreham Wood / Wigan)
1.27 / 0.62
Defence rating (Boreham Wood / Wigan)
0.88 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Boreham Wood vs Wigan score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.2% 3.4% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1 10.4% 10.1% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.0% 9.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 3 8.5% 6.9% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 7.4% 6.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Boreham Wood goals. Columns: Wigan goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Boreham Wood vs Wigan goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Boreham Wood vs Wigan

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Boreham Wood58%1.74
Draw22%4.50
Wigan20%4.95
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.78
Under 2.544%2.28
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Boreham Wood or draw)80%1.25
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Wigan)42%2.36
Handicap -1Boreham Wood win by 2+44%2.30
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Boreham Wood and Wigan recent form

Boreham Wood 4W 1D 1L
Wigan 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Boreham Wood at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Boreham Wood at home only, Wigan away only.

Expected lineups

Boreham Wood lineup

  1. 34 B. Whitfield
  2. 5 C. Bush
  3. 6 C. O'Connell
  4. 3 Oliver Bainbridge
  5. 23 R. Booty
  6. 11 T. Allarakhia
  7. 17 T. Golden
  8. 4 T. White
  9. 22 Ted Curd
  10. 8 Z. Brunt

Bench: J. Clarke, D. Cashman, C. Wilkinson, C. Reynolds, Farhaan Ali Wahid, M. Miranda, O. Kensdale, W. Wright, M. Rush

Wigan lineup

  1. 27 B. Burrows
  2. 2 C. Barrett
  3. 38 C. Saydee
  4. 5 F. Burns
  5. 7 F. Murray
  6. 23 J. Carragher
  7. 22 J. Mellish
  8. 6 J. Weir
  9. 41 J. Whitworth
  10. 3 M. Fox
  11. 8 M. Power

Bench: J. Walsh, J. Chilokoa-Mullen, S. Perkins, R. Walsh, R. Trevitt, A. Higgins, K. Miller

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match