Wigan vs Mansfield Town preview
In the League One match between Wigan and Mansfield Town, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a 45% chance of a Mansfield Town win compared to 29% for Wigan. The most likely scoreline from our model is 1-2, with a 9% probability. Wigan's expected goals stand at 1.22, while Mansfield Town's are higher at 1.69, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Wigan recording 2 wins and 4 losses in their last 6 matches, while Mansfield Town has 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 6. The model also predicts a 56% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance for both teams to score. However, if Wigan can improve their defensive performance, they may challenge Mansfield Town's attacking threat.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town: model vs market
| Source | Wigan | Draw | Mansfield Town |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 44% |
| Published | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.22.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Wigan vs Mansfield Town odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mansfield Town, 15 snapshots since 2026-09-27.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wigan | 2.29 | 3.20 | +0.91 |
| Draw | 3.52 | 3.54 | +0.02 |
| Mansfield Town | 2.85 | 2.10 | -0.75 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Wigan and Mansfield Town expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.91
- Attack rating (Wigan / Mansfield Town)
- 0.76 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Wigan / Mansfield Town)
- 1.19 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Wigan goals. Columns: Mansfield Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Wigan vs Mansfield Town
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wigan | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.80 | |
| Mansfield Town | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.71 |
| No | 41% | 2.42 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Wigan or draw) | 55% | 1.82 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Mansfield Town) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win by 2+ | 26% | 3.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Wigan and Mansfield Town recent form
Wigan
2W 0D 4L
Mansfield Town
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Wigan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-3
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Mansfield Town away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-3
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Wigan at home only, Mansfield Town away only.
Wigan vs Mansfield Town head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Wigan 2 · draws 2 · Mansfield Town 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Wigan | 2-1 | Mansfield Town | League One |
| 2025-10-25 | Mansfield Town | 1-1 | Wigan | League One |
| 2025-03-04 | Mansfield Town | 0-0 | Wigan | League One |
| 2025-01-14 | Mansfield Town | 0-2 | Wigan | England FA Cup |
| 2024-10-22 | Wigan | 1-2 | Mansfield Town | League One |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Sheffield Wednesday vs Cambridge United — team news & stats 2026-10-27
- Oxford United vs Stockport County 2026-10-27
- Luton vs Doncaster 2026-10-27
Before and after this match
- Wigan, previous: Wigan vs Bromley: odds and pick
- Wigan, next: Boreham Wood vs Wigan: odds and pick
- Mansfield Town, previous: Mansfield Town vs Notts County prediction
- Mansfield Town, next: Mansfield Town v Macclesfield analysis