League One · Matchday 9Postponed

Wigan vs Mansfield Town

· DW Stadium, Wigan

Alin prediction Wigan to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
WiganDrawMansfield Town

Wigan vs Mansfield Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWiganDrawMansfield Town
Model36%30%35%
Market40%27%33%
Published39%27%34%
Edge-5%+3%+2%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wigan vs Mansfield Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wigan, 13 snapshots since 2026-09-27.

Opened 2.29Now 2.30 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wigan2.292.30+0.00
Draw3.523.48-0.04
Mansfield Town2.852.80-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wigan and Mansfield Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.25Wigan
1.23Mansfield Town
Total expected goals
2.48
Attack rating (Wigan / Mansfield Town)
0.68 / 1.07
Defence rating (Wigan / Mansfield Town)
0.98 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wigan vs Mansfield Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.7% 9.0% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0% 1 9.2% 14.2% 7.9% 3.3% 1.3% 2 6.5% 8.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.8% 3 2.7% 3.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3% 4+ 1.1% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Wigan goals. Columns: Mansfield Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wigan vs Mansfield Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
52%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wigan vs Mansfield Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wigan39%2.56
Draw27%3.65
Mansfield Town34%2.98
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.22
Under 2.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes52%1.93
No48%2.07
Double chance1X (Wigan or draw)66%1.50
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Mansfield Town)61%1.64
Handicap -1Wigan win by 2+16%6.25
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wigan and Mansfield Town recent form

Wigan 1W 1D 4L
Mansfield Town 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wigan at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-3
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.

Mansfield Town away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.75
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wigan at home only, Mansfield Town away only.

Wigan vs Mansfield Town head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Wigan 2 · draws 2 · Mansfield Town 1.

WiganDrawsMansfield Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-11Wigan2-1Mansfield TownLeague One
2025-10-25Mansfield Town1-1WiganLeague One
2025-03-04Mansfield Town0-0WiganLeague One
2025-01-14Mansfield Town0-2WiganEngland FA Cup
2024-10-22Wigan1-2Mansfield TownLeague One

Other Matchday 9 fixtures