Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield: model vs market
| Source | Mansfield Town | Draw | Macclesfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| Market | 68% | 18% | 13% |
| Published | 58% | 20% | 22% |
| Edge | -10% | +2% | +8% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Mansfield Town, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town | 1.34 | 1.35 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| Macclesfield | 7.18 | 7.00 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Mansfield Town and Macclesfield expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Mansfield Town / Macclesfield)
- 0.94 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Mansfield Town / Macclesfield)
- 0.86 / 0.71
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Mansfield Town goals. Columns: Macclesfield goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 58% | 1.72 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.90 | |
| Macclesfield | 22% | 4.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.71 |
| No | 42% | 2.41 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Mansfield Town or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Macclesfield) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Mansfield Town win by 2+ | 11% | 8.71 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Mansfield Town and Macclesfield recent form
Mansfield Town
3W 2D 1L
Macclesfield
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Macclesfield away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Mansfield Town at home only, Macclesfield away only.
Expected lineups
Mansfield Town lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 1 L. Roberts
- 20 F. Blake-Tracy
- 22 N. Moriah-Welsh
- 9 J. Bowery
- 3 S. McLaughlin
- 24 R. Hendry
- 25 L. Reed
- 5 R. Sweeney
- 13 J. Russell
- 10 G. Maris
- 14 M. Smith
Bench: K. Knoyle, E. Hewitt, L. Bolton, R. Oates, T. Roberts, H. Lewis, O. Taylor, O. Dodgson
Macclesfield lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 C. Dibble
- 11 L. Duffy
- 10 D. Elliott
- 5 C. Borthwick-Jackson
- 8 G. Wilson
- 19 J. Ustabasi
- 14 F. Shrimpton
- 18 J. Kay
Bench: E. Osborne, T. Chapman, A. George
Mansfield Town vs Macclesfield head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Mansfield Town 4 · draws 2 · Macclesfield 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-12 | Macclesfield | 0-2 | Mansfield Town | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2019-11-16 | Macclesfield | 0-0 | Mansfield Town | League Two |
| 2019-02-02 | Mansfield Town | 3-1 | Macclesfield | League Two |
| 2018-08-25 | Macclesfield | 1-1 | Mansfield Town | League Two |
| 2013-04-09 | Mansfield Town | 3-1 | Macclesfield | National League |
| 2012-11-20 | Macclesfield | 0-3 | Mansfield Town | National League |
Other 1/128-finals fixtures
- Bristol Rovers v Cambridge United — match page 2026-11-06
- Oxford City v Leicester — match page 2026-11-06
- Huddersfield vs Exeter City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds 2026-11-07
- Fleetwood Town vs Rochdale — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Oxford United vs Stevenage 2026-11-07
- Bradford v Marine — match page 2026-11-07
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town — team news & stats 2026-11-07
Before and after this match
- Mansfield Town, previous: Wigan vs Mansfield Town prediction
- Mansfield Town, next: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town prediction