Updated

League One · Matchday 15Postponed

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town

· Broadhall Way, Stevenage

Alin prediction Stevenage to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
StevenageDrawMansfield Town
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Stevenage is the favourite, not a value bet.

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStevenageDrawMansfield Town
Model39%30%31%
Market39%30%32%
Published39%30%31%
Edge0%0%0%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Stevenage, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.30Now 2.39 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Stevenage2.302.39+0.09
Draw3.353.15-0.20
Mansfield Town2.923.00+0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Stevenage and Mansfield Town expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.27Stevenage
1.12Mansfield Town
Total expected goals
2.39
Attack rating (Stevenage / Mansfield Town)
0.99 / 1.16
Defence rating (Stevenage / Mansfield Town)
0.82 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.4% 8.9% 5.7% 2.1% 0.8% 1 10.3% 14.3% 7.3% 2.7% 1.0% 2 7.4% 8.3% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 3 3.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.7% 0.3% 4+ 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Stevenage goals. Columns: Mansfield Town goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
50%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Stevenage vs Mansfield Town

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Stevenage39%2.58
Draw30%3.36
Mansfield Town31%3.18
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.33
Under 2.557%1.75
Both teams to scoreYes50%2.01
No50%1.99
Double chance1X (Stevenage or draw)69%1.46
12 (either side)70%1.42
X2 (draw or Mansfield Town)61%1.63
Handicap -1Stevenage win by 2+18%5.63
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Stevenage and Mansfield Town recent form

Stevenage 3W 1D 2L
Mansfield Town 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Stevenage at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-1-2
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 6
  • They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.

Mansfield Town away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.57
Clean sheets
2 of 7
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Stevenage at home only, Mansfield Town away only.

Stevenage vs Mansfield Town head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Stevenage 1 · draws 4 · Mansfield Town 5.

StevenageDrawsMansfield Town
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-24Stevenage1-1Mansfield TownLeague One
2025-09-13Mansfield Town1-1StevenageLeague One
2025-03-08Stevenage1-1Mansfield TownLeague One
2024-11-30Stevenage0-1Mansfield TownEngland FA Cup
2024-10-19Mansfield Town0-1StevenageLeague One
2023-04-22Mansfield Town1-0StevenageLeague Two
2022-12-10Stevenage0-0Mansfield TownLeague Two
2022-04-26Mansfield Town2-0StevenageLeague Two
2021-11-13Stevenage1-2Mansfield TownLeague Two
2021-04-17Stevenage0-1Mansfield TownLeague Two

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match