Notts County vs Stevenage preview
In the upcoming match between Notts County and Stevenage, the 1X2 probabilities show Notts County at 38%, with a most likely scoreline of 1-0 at 11%. Notts County's expected goals stand at 1.17, while Stevenage has 1.04. This suggests a tight contest, but the prediction could be challenged if both teams score, which our model estimates at 46%.
The likelihood of Over 2.5 goals is 38%, indicating that a high-scoring game is less probable. Notts County's recent form includes two draws and a win, while Stevenage has seen more success with four wins in their last six matches. This contrast in form may influence the outcome, making it a match worth watching.
Notts County vs Stevenage: model vs market
| Source | Notts County | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 32% | 31% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 38% | 32% | 31% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Notts County and Stevenage expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Notts County / Stevenage)
- 0.96 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Notts County / Stevenage)
- 0.90 / 0.82
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Notts County vs Stevenage score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Notts County goals. Columns: Stevenage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Notts County vs Stevenage goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 46%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Notts County vs Stevenage
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 38% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.17 | |
| Stevenage | 31% | 3.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46% | 2.17 |
| No | 54% | 1.86 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Notts County or draw) | 69% | 1.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| X2 (draw or Stevenage) | 62% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Notts County win by 2+ | 16% | 6.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Notts County and Stevenage recent form
Notts County
2W 2D 2L
Stevenage
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Notts County at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 12 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-2
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Notts County at home only, Stevenage away only.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Leicester 2026-11-21
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page 2026-11-21
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Bradford vs Doncaster 2026-11-21
- Plymouth v Peterborough — match page 2026-11-21
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon 2026-11-21
- Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — match page 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Notts County, previous: Bromley – Notts County, 2026-11-14
- Notts County, next: Guiseley AFC vs Notts County prediction
- Stevenage, previous: Stevenage vs Mansfield Town prediction
- Stevenage, next: Exeter City – Stevenage, 2026-12-05