Plymouth vs Peterborough preview
Plymouth faces Peterborough with a strong 78% probability of winning, while Peterborough sits at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, reflecting Plymouth's expected goals of 2.84 compared to Peterborough's 0.83. With Plymouth's recent form showing 3 wins in their last 6 matches, they appear to be in better shape.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty. While 71% of simulations suggest Over 2.5 goals, and 54% predict both teams to score, Peterborough's struggles could lead to a low-scoring match. If Plymouth underperforms or Peterborough surprises, the predictions could miss the mark.
Plymouth vs Peterborough: model vs market
| Source | Plymouth | Draw | Peterborough |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78% | 14% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 78% | 14% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.84 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Plymouth and Peterborough expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.67
- Attack rating (Plymouth / Peterborough)
- 1.24 / 0.76
- Defence rating (Plymouth / Peterborough)
- 0.93 / 1.54
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Plymouth vs Peterborough score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Plymouth goals. Columns: Peterborough goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Plymouth vs Peterborough goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Plymouth vs Peterborough
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Plymouth | 78% | 1.28 |
| Draw | 14% | 6.96 | |
| Peterborough | 7% | 13.34 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71% | 1.41 |
| Under 2.5 | 29% | 3.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.87 |
| No | 46% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Plymouth or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 86% | 1.17 | |
| X2 (draw or Peterborough) | 22% | 4.57 | |
| Handicap -1 | Plymouth win by 2+ | 59% | 1.70 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Plymouth and Peterborough recent form
Plymouth
3W 1D 2L
Peterborough
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Plymouth at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-3
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.14
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Peterborough away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-4
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 7
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Plymouth at home only, Peterborough away only.
Plymouth vs Peterborough head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Plymouth 1 · draws 0 · Peterborough 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Peterborough | 0-1 | Plymouth | League One |
| 2025-09-20 | Plymouth | 0-1 | Peterborough | League One |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
- Huddersfield vs Leicester 2026-11-21
- Burton Albion v Luton — match page 2026-11-21
- Oxford United vs Wycombe — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Bradford vs Doncaster 2026-11-21
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats 2026-11-21
- Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon 2026-11-21
- Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons — match page 2026-11-21
- Notts County vs Stevenage — team news & stats 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Plymouth, previous: Sheffield Wednesday – Plymouth, 2026-11-14
- Plymouth, next: Crewe vs Plymouth prediction
- Peterborough, previous: Peterborough vs Oxford United prediction