Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon preview
Leyton Orient faces AFC Wimbledon with a 76% probability of winning, while Wimbledon sits at just 7%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Leyton Orient's expected goals of 2.42 compared to Wimbledon's 0.63. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Leyton Orient.
However, Leyton Orient's recent form shows some inconsistency with two losses in their last five matches. Meanwhile, AFC Wimbledon has struggled significantly, losing their last six games. This could impact the expected outcome if Wimbledon manages to improve their performance or if Leyton Orient underperforms. The model also indicates a 59% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance for both teams to score.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon: model vs market
| Source | Leyton Orient | Draw | AFC Wimbledon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 76% | 17% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.42 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.06
- Attack rating (Leyton Orient / AFC Wimbledon)
- 1.26 / 0.65
- Defence rating (Leyton Orient / AFC Wimbledon)
- 0.82 / 1.29
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leyton Orient goals. Columns: AFC Wimbledon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leyton Orient | 76% | 1.31 |
| Draw | 17% | 6.01 | |
| AFC Wimbledon | 7% | 14.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.30 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leyton Orient or draw) | 93% | 1.08 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or AFC Wimbledon) | 24% | 4.22 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leyton Orient win by 2+ | 54% | 1.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Leyton Orient and AFC Wimbledon recent form
Leyton Orient
3W 1D 2L
AFC Wimbledon
0W 1D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leyton Orient at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-4
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
AFC Wimbledon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-5
- Win rate
- 14%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 2.43
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 7
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leyton Orient at home only, AFC Wimbledon away only.
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Leyton Orient 1 · draws 0 · AFC Wimbledon 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-17 | AFC Wimbledon | 2-4 | Leyton Orient | League One |
| 2026-01-01 | Leyton Orient | 1-3 | AFC Wimbledon | League One |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
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- Plymouth v Peterborough — match page 2026-11-21
- Cambridge United vs Stockport County — team news & stats 2026-11-21
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- Notts County vs Stevenage — team news & stats 2026-11-21
Before and after this match
- Leyton Orient, previous: Doncaster – Leyton Orient, 2026-11-14
- Leyton Orient, next: Port Vale vs Leyton Orient prediction
- AFC Wimbledon, previous: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool analysis