Updated

League One · Matchday 15Postponed

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient

· Keepmoat Stadium, Doncaster

Alin prediction Leyton Orient to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 2

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
DoncasterDrawLeyton Orient
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.96.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDoncasterDrawLeyton Orient
Model15%21%64%
Market40%27%32%
Published34%26%40%
Edge-6%-2%+8%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 0.96.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Leyton Orient below our published probability: +8.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leyton Orient, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.83Now 2.92 +0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Doncaster2.282.30+0.02
Draw3.543.40-0.14
Leyton Orient2.832.92+0.09

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Doncaster and Leyton Orient expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.96Doncaster
2.17Leyton Orient
Total expected goals
3.13
Attack rating (Doncaster / Leyton Orient)
0.78 / 1.26
Defence rating (Doncaster / Leyton Orient)
1.47 / 0.82

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.3% 8.6% 10.3% 7.5% 6.7% 1 3.3% 10.0% 9.9% 7.2% 6.4% 2 2.0% 4.4% 4.7% 3.4% 3.1% 3 0.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0% 4+ 0.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3%

Rows: Doncaster goals. Columns: Leyton Orient goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 61%
Over 3.5 38%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Doncaster vs Leyton Orient

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Doncaster34%2.94
Draw26%3.87
Leyton Orient40%2.49
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561%1.65
Under 2.539%2.53
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Doncaster or draw)60%1.67
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Leyton Orient)66%1.52
Handicap -1Leyton Orient win by 2+42%2.41
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Doncaster and Leyton Orient recent form

Doncaster 1W 0D 5L
Leyton Orient 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Doncaster at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leyton Orient away

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.67
Clean sheets
3 of 6
  • They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Doncaster at home only, Leyton Orient away only.

Doncaster vs Leyton Orient head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Doncaster 6 · draws 1 · Leyton Orient 3.

DoncasterDrawsLeyton Orient
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-27Doncaster3-0Leyton OrientLeague One
2025-10-11Leyton Orient4-0DoncasterLeague One
2023-01-07Leyton Orient1-0DoncasterLeague Two
2022-10-08Doncaster1-1Leyton OrientLeague Two
2017-03-18Leyton Orient1-4DoncasterLeague Two
2016-11-26Doncaster3-1Leyton OrientLeague Two
2015-04-14Leyton Orient0-1DoncasterLeague One
2014-10-21Doncaster0-2Leyton OrientLeague One
2013-01-19Doncaster2-0Leyton OrientLeague One
2012-09-29Leyton Orient0-2DoncasterLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match