Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster

· Aggborough, Kidderminster

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Doncaster to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

5% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Kidderminster HarriersDrawDoncaster

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceKidderminster HarriersDrawDoncaster
Model58%24%17%
Market24%25%52%
Published32%25%43%
Edge+9%0%-9%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Doncaster, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.80Now 1.80 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Kidderminster Harriers3.993.96-0.03
Draw3.793.77-0.01
Doncaster1.801.80+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.89Kidderminster Harriers
0.95Doncaster
Total expected goals
2.84
Attack rating (Kidderminster Harriers / Doncaster)
0.89 / 0.74
Defence rating (Kidderminster Harriers / Doncaster)
0.86 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.9% 4.5% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1 10.0% 11.5% 5.0% 1.6% 0.5% 2 10.5% 9.9% 4.7% 1.5% 0.4% 3 6.6% 6.2% 3.0% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 4.8% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Kidderminster Harriers goals. Columns: Doncaster goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Kidderminster Harriers vs Doncaster

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Kidderminster Harriers32%3.10
Draw25%4.07
Doncaster43%2.32
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.86
Under 2.546%2.17
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.89
No47%2.13
Double chance1X (Kidderminster Harriers or draw)57%1.76
12 (either side)75%1.33
X2 (draw or Doncaster)68%1.48
Handicap -1Doncaster win by 2+6%16.12
Push (exactly one goal)11%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Kidderminster Harriers and Doncaster recent form

Kidderminster Harriers 3W 1D 2L
Doncaster 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Kidderminster Harriers at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Kidderminster Harriers at home only, Doncaster away only.

Expected lineups

Kidderminster Harriers lineup

  1. 8 Ben Crompton
  2. 20 C. Hargreaves
  3. 4 C. Harries
  4. 26 D. Davis
  5. 1 Jack Wint
  6. 9 L. Walker
  7. 29 Maziar Kouhyar
  8. 6 R. Faakye

Bench: Reece Daniel Hall, A. MacDonald, M. Brogan, J. Bishop, M. Reindorf, Oliver Tipton

Doncaster lineup

  1. 10 A. May
  2. 9 B. Hanlan
  3. 15 H. Clifton
  4. 42 J. Clarke
  5. 6 J. McGrath
  6. 23 J. Senior
  7. 19 J. Thomas
  8. 12 N. Byrne
  9. 4 O. Bailey
  10. 22 R. Gotts
  11. 16 T. Nixon

Bench: Tommy Simkin, J. Sterry, G. Broadbent, L. Ayinde, D. Robinson, I. Hutchinson, B. McCann, S. Grehan, H. Adelakun

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match