Updated

England FA Cup · 1/128-finals

Oxford United vs Stevenage

· Kassam Stadium, Oxford

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Oxford United to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Oxford UnitedDrawStevenage

Oxford United vs Stevenage: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceOxford UnitedDrawStevenage
Model48%31%20%
Market46%28%26%
Published47%29%25%
Edge+1%+1%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.30 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Oxford United vs Stevenage odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Oxford United, 3 snapshots since 2026-11-06.

Opened 1.98Now 2.00 +0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Oxford United1.982.00+0.02
Draw3.403.34-0.05
Stevenage3.613.56-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Oxford United and Stevenage expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.30Oxford United
0.75Stevenage
Total expected goals
2.05
Attack rating (Oxford United / Stevenage)
0.91 / 0.85
Defence rating (Oxford United / Stevenage)
0.60 / 0.79

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Oxford United vs Stevenage score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 14.1% 8.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 1 15.5% 13.8% 4.7% 1.2% 0.3% 2 10.9% 8.2% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 3 4.7% 3.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 2.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: Oxford United goals. Columns: Stevenage goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Oxford United vs Stevenage goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 86%
Over 1.5 62%
Over 2.5 34%
Over 3.5 15%
Both teams to score
40%
No goals (0–0)
14%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Oxford United vs Stevenage

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Oxford United47%2.13
Draw29%3.50
Stevenage25%4.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534%2.96
Under 2.566%1.51
Both teams to scoreYes40%2.52
No60%1.66
Double chance1X (Oxford United or draw)75%1.33
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Stevenage)53%1.88
Handicap -1Oxford United win by 2+23%4.27
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Oxford United and Stevenage recent form

Oxford United 3W 3D 0L
Stevenage 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Expected lineups

Oxford United lineup

  1. 22 G. Leigh
  2. 19 G. O'Donkor
  3. 44 H. Bradney
  4. 25 J. Golding
  5. 20 L. Lynch
  6. 32 L. Sibley
  7. 27 L. Snowden
  8. 57 M. Missanga
  9. 13 S. Eastwood
  10. 2 S. Long

Stevenage lineup

  1. 27 B. Broggio
  2. 5 C. Piergianni
  3. 8 D. Phillips
  4. 16 K. Casey
  5. 23 L. Thompson
  6. 18 O. Sanderson
  7. 44 P. Patterson
  8. 14 S. Earley
  9. 1 T. Setford
  10. 19 T. Turhan
  11. 15 T. Vancooten

Bench: T. Taylor, J. Magennis, C. Campbell, M. Smith, Wanya Marçal, M. Mellon, M. Woodford

Oxford United vs Stevenage head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Oxford United 5 · draws 3 · Stevenage 1.

Oxford UnitedDrawsStevenage
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-08-22Stevenage1-2Oxford UnitedLeague One
2024-04-19Oxford United1-1StevenageLeague One
2023-09-30Stevenage1-3Oxford UnitedLeague One
2021-10-05Oxford United1-2StevenageEFL Trophy
2017-08-29Stevenage2-6Oxford UnitedEFL Trophy
2016-03-25Oxford United1-1StevenageLeague Two
2015-10-31Stevenage1-5Oxford UnitedLeague Two
2015-01-31Stevenage0-2Oxford UnitedLeague Two
2014-09-20Oxford United0-0StevenageLeague Two

Other 1/128-finals fixtures

Before and after this match