Updated

League One · Matchday 15Postponed

Peterborough vs Oxford United

· Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough

Alin prediction Oxford United to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 0 – 1

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PeterboroughDrawOxford United
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.

Peterborough vs Oxford United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePeterboroughDrawOxford United
Model14%25%61%
Market36%27%37%
Published31%27%43%
Edge-5%-1%+6%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.76.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Oxford United below our published probability: +6.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Peterborough vs Oxford United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Oxford United, 27 snapshots since 2026-11-01.

Opened 2.47Now 2.51 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Peterborough2.502.55+0.05
Draw3.603.39-0.21
Oxford United2.472.51+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Peterborough and Oxford United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.76Peterborough
1.79Oxford United
Total expected goals
2.55
Attack rating (Peterborough / Oxford United)
0.76 / 0.99
Defence rating (Peterborough / Oxford United)
1.54 / 0.68

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Peterborough vs Oxford United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.9% 12.9% 12.5% 7.4% 5.0% 1 4.9% 11.7% 9.5% 5.7% 3.8% 2 2.3% 4.1% 3.6% 2.2% 1.4% 3 0.6% 1.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 4+ 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Peterborough goals. Columns: Oxford United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Peterborough vs Oxford United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
45%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Peterborough vs Oxford United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Peterborough31%3.25
Draw27%3.76
Oxford United43%2.34
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.13
Under 2.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes45%2.20
No55%1.83
Double chance1X (Peterborough or draw)57%1.74
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Oxford United)69%1.44
Handicap -1Oxford United win by 2+36%2.79
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Peterborough and Oxford United recent form

Peterborough 0W 2D 4L
Oxford United 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Peterborough at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-3
Win rate
17%
Goals for / match
0.83
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Oxford United away

Record (W-D-L)
3-2-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.83
Goals against / match
1.17
Clean sheets
1 of 6
  • They have won 7 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 13 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Peterborough at home only, Oxford United away only.

Peterborough vs Oxford United head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Peterborough 2 · draws 4 · Oxford United 3.

PeterboroughDrawsOxford United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2024-08-13Oxford United2-0PeterboroughLeague Cup
2024-05-08Peterborough1-1Oxford UnitedLeague One
2024-05-04Oxford United1-0PeterboroughLeague One
2024-04-13Oxford United5-0PeterboroughLeague One
2023-12-09Peterborough3-0Oxford UnitedLeague One
2023-04-01Peterborough0-0Oxford UnitedLeague One
2022-10-22Oxford United1-2PeterboroughLeague One
2021-07-28Oxford United2-2PeterboroughFriendlies Clubs
2021-03-02Oxford United0-0PeterboroughLeague One

Other Matchday 15 fixtures

Before and after this match